Related papers: Regional impacts poorly constrained by climate sen…
There is as yet no theoretical framework to guide the search for emergent constraints. As a result, there are significant risks that indiscriminate data-mining of the multidimensional outputs from GCMs could lead to spurious correlations…
Scientific and technological advances in numerical modelling have improved the quality of climate predictions over recent decades, but predictive skill remains limited in many aspects. Extreme events such as heat and cold waves, droughts,…
Modelling dependencies between climate extremes is important for climate risk assessment, for instance when allocating emergency management funds. In statistics, multivariate extreme value theory is often used to model spatial extremes.…
Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
Efforts to reduce climate change, but also falling prices and significant technology developments currently drive an increased weather-dependent electricity production from renewable electricity sources. In light of the changing climate, it…
Regional high-resolution climate projections are crucial for many applications, such as agriculture, hydrology, and natural hazard risk assessment. Dynamical downscaling, the state-of-the-art method to produce localized future climate…
Was the spread of agropastoralism from the Fertile Crescent throughout Europe influenced by extreme climate events, or was it independent of climate? We here generate idealized climate events using palaeoclimate records. In a mathematical…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
Extratropical storms shape midlatitude weather and vary due to the slowly evolving climate and the rapid changes in synoptic conditions. While the influence of each factor has been studied extensively, their relative importance remains…
The current framework for climate change negotiation models presents several limitations that warrant further research and development. In this track, we discuss mainly two key areas for improvement, focusing on the geographical impacts and…
Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output.…
As urbanization and climate change progress, urban heat becomes a priority for climate adaptation efforts. High temperatures concentrated in urban heat can drive increased risk of heat-related death and illness as well as increased energy…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…
Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the…
Global Storm-Resolving Models (GSRMs) have gained widespread interest because of the unprecedented detail with which they resolve the global climate. However, it remains difficult to quantify objective differences in how GSRMs resolve…
Forecasting the wide variety of high-impact weather events experienced globally is a challenge for both Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and it is critical that such models be properly verified…
We may anticipate that climate change will bring changes to the intensity and variability of near surface winds, either through local effects or by altering the large-scale flow. The impact of climate change on European wind resources has…
I propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: A stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of inefficiency. I…