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Selecting an optimal set of exemplars is critical for good performance of in-context learning. However, prior exemplar search methods narrowly optimize for predictive accuracy, critically neglecting model calibration--a key determinant of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Gaoxiang Luo , Aryan Deshwal

In this paper, we study optimization methods consisting of iteratively minimizing surrogates of an objective function. By proposing several algorithmic variants and simple convergence analyses, we make two main contributions. First, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-05-15 Julien Mairal

Surrogate markers are often employed in clinical trials to replace primary outcomes that may be difficult, expensive, or time-consuming to measure directly. These markers can accelerate the evaluation of new treatments, provided they…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Pietro Carlotti , Layla Parast

Delayed primary outcomes and administratively censored follow-up create a general semiparametric estimation problem: the target causal functional depends on an endpoint observed only for a shrinking subset of units at analysis time, while…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Lin Li , Tuo Lin , Yiwen Chen , Xin M. Tu

Building local surrogates to accelerate stationary point searches on potential energy surfaces spans decades of effort. Done correctly, surrogates can reduce the number of expensive electronic structure evaluations by roughly an order of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-30 Rohit Goswami

The increasing penetration of renewable generation introduces uncertainty into power systems, challenging traditional deterministic optimization methods. Chance-constrained optimization offers an approach to balancing cost and risk;…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-06 Amir Bahador Javadi , Amin Kargarian

We propose a new methodology for parameterized constrained robust optimization, an important class of optimization problems under uncertainty, based on learning with a self-supervised penalty-based loss function. Whereas supervised learning…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-10 Wyame Benslimane , Paul Grigas

Generating simulated training data needed for constructing sufficiently accurate surrogate models to be used for efficient optimization or parameter identification can incur a huge computational effort in the offline phase. We consider a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-04-03 Phillip Semler , Martin Weiser

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful framework for estimating parameters of expensive simulation models, particularly in settings where the likelihood is intractable and evaluations are costly. In stochastic models every simulation is…

In many real-world optimization problems, we have prior information about what objective function values are achievable. In this paper, we study the scenario that we have either exact knowledge of the minimum value or a, possibly inexact,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Hanyang Wang , Juergen Branke , Matthias Poloczek

Choosing decision variables deterministically (deterministic decision-making) can be regarded as a particular case of choosing decision variables probabilistically (probabilistic decision-making). It is necessary to investigate whether…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-18 Xun Shen , Yuhu Wu , Satoshi Ito , Jun-ichi Imura

Surrogate-based optimization, nature-inspired metaheuristics, and hybrid combinations have become state of the art in algorithm design for solving real-world optimization problems. Still, it is difficult for practitioners to get an overview…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-01-26 Jörg Stork , A. E. Eiben , Thomas Bartz-Beielstein

Preferential Bayesian Optimization (PBO) aims to find a decision-maker's most preferred solution in as few pairwise comparisons as possible. Existing approaches rely on Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates, which provide strong performance but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Nick Leenders , Thomas Quadt , Boris Cule , Roy Lindelauf , Herman Monsuur , Joost van Oijen , Mark Voskuijl

We propose an efficient surrogate modeling technique for uncertainty quantification. The method is based on a well-known dimension-adaptive collocation scheme. We improve the scheme by enhancing sparse polynomial surrogates with conformal…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-05-20 Niklas Georg , Dimitrios Loukrezis , Ulrich Römer , Sebastian Schöps

Decision support systems often rely on solving complex optimization problems that may require to estimate uncertain parameters beforehand. Recent studies have shown how using traditionally trained estimators for this task can lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Gaetano Signorelli , Michele Lombardi

This paper considers the efficient minimization of the infinite time average of a stationary ergodic process in the space of a handful of design parameters which affect it. Problems of this class, derived from physical or numerical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-29 Pooriya Beyhaghi , Ryan Alimo , Thomas Bewley

The aim of the present paper is to develop a strategy for solving reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problems that remains applicable when the performance models are expensive to evaluate. Starting with the premise that…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-04-20 V. Dubourg , B. Sudret , J. -M. Bourinet

Big data is ubiquitous in practices, and it has also led to heavy computation burden. To reduce the calculation cost and ensure the effectiveness of parameter estimators, an optimal subset sampling method is proposed to estimate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-16 Haohui Han , Liya Fu

A challenging problem in both engineering and computer science is that of minimising a function for which we have no mathematical formulation available, that is expensive to evaluate, and that contains continuous and integer variables, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-28 Laurens Bliek , Arthur Guijt , Sicco Verwer , Mathijs de Weerdt

We propose an extension of Thompson sampling to optimization problems over function spaces where the objective is a known functional of an unknown operator's output. We assume that queries to the operator (such as running a high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-21 Rafael Oliveira , Xuesong Wang , Kian Ming A. Chai , Edwin V. Bonilla