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We introduce a local surrogate approach for explainable time-series forecasting. An initially non-interpretable predictive model to improve the forecast of a classical time-series 'base model' is used. 'Explainability' of the correction is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Alfredo Lopez , Florian Sobieczky

Interpretability methods that utilise local surrogate models (e.g. LIME) are very good at describing the behaviour of the predictive model at a point of interest, but they are not guaranteed to extrapolate to the local region surrounding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-21 Marton Havasi , Sonali Parbhoo , Finale Doshi-Velez

Time series forecasting is a demanding task ranging from weather to failure forecasting with black-box models achieving state-of-the-art performances. However, understanding and debugging are not guaranteed. We propose TS-MULE, a local…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-20 Udo Schlegel , Duy Vo Lam , Daniel A. Keim , Daniel Seebacher

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods, such as Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), have advanced the interpretability of black-box machine learning models by approximating their behavior locally using…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-22 Rehan Raza , Guanjin Wang , Kok Wai Wong , Hamid Laga , Marco Fisichella

LIME is a popular approach for explaining a black-box prediction through an interpretable model that is trained on instances in the vicinity of the predicted instance. To generate these instances, LIME randomly selects a subset of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Amir Hossein Akhavan Rahnama , Henrik Boström

Interpreting complex machine learning models is a critical challenge, especially for tabular data where model transparency is paramount. Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) has been a very popular framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Mohamed Aymen Bouyahia , Argyris Kalogeratos

Global variable importance measures are commonly used to interpret the results of machine learning models. Local variable importance techniques assess how variables contribute to individual observations. Current, popular methods, including…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-12 Kelvyn K. Bladen , Adele Cutler , D. Richard Cutler , Kevin R. Moon

Post-hoc explainability is essential for understanding black-box machine learning models. Surrogate-based techniques are widely used for local and global model-agnostic explanations but have significant limitations. Local surrogates capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Simone Piaggesi , Riccardo Guidotti , Fosca Giannotti , Dino Pedreschi

Many problems in computer vision have recently been tackled using models whose predictions cannot be easily interpreted, most commonly deep neural networks. Surrogate explainers are a popular post-hoc interpretability method to further…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Ricardo Kleinlein , Alexander Hepburn , Raúl Santos-Rodríguez , Fernando Fernández-Martínez

Global Forecasting Models (GFM) that are trained across a set of multiple time series have shown superior results in many forecasting competitions and real-world applications compared with univariate forecasting approaches. One aspect of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Dilini Rajapaksha , Christoph Bergmeir , Rob J Hyndman

Time-series forecasting underpins critical decisions across aviation, energy, retail and health. Classical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models offer interpretability via coefficients but struggle with nonlinearities,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Manish Shukla

Models in the supervised learning framework may capture rich and complex representations over the features that are hard for humans to interpret. Existing methods to explain such models are often specific to architectures and data where the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-25 Akshay Sood , Mark Craven

Locally interpretable model agnostic explanations (LIME) method is one of the most popular methods used to explain black-box models at a per example level. Although many variants have been proposed, few provide a simple way to produce high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Amit Dhurandhar , Karthikeyan Ramamurthy , Kartik Ahuja , Vijay Arya

The explainability of machine learning algorithms is crucial, and numerous methods have emerged recently. Local, post-hoc methods assign an attribution score to each feature, indicating its importance for the prediction. However, these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Giorgio Visani , Vincenzo Stanzione , Damien Garreau

Explainable artificial intelligence provides tools to better understand predictive models and their decisions, but many such methods are limited to producing insights with respect to a single class. When generating explanations for several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-27 Kacper Sokol , Peter Flach

In artificial intelligence (AI), the complexity of many models and processes surpasses human understanding, making it challenging to determine why a specific prediction is made. This lack of transparency is particularly problematic in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-30 Alexandra Stadler , Werner G. Müller , Radoslav Harman

Despite outstanding contribution to the significant progress of Artificial Intelligence (AI), deep learning models remain mostly black boxes, which are extremely weak in explainability of the reasoning process and prediction results.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-11 Sheng Shi , Xinfeng Zhang , Wei Fan

As black-box machine learning models grow in complexity and find applications in high-stakes scenarios, it is imperative to provide explanations for their predictions. Although Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) [22] is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Zeren Tan , Yang Tian , Jian Li

Machine learning and especially deep learning have garneredtremendous popularity in recent years due to their increased performanceover other methods. The availability of large amount of data has aidedin the progress of deep learning.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-06 Sharath M. Shankaranarayana , Davor Runje

Active learning has long been a topic of study in machine learning. However, as increasingly complex and opaque models have become standard practice, the process of active learning, too, has become more opaque. There has been little…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-26 Richard L. Phillips , Kyu Hyun Chang , Sorelle A. Friedler
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