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In a clustered observational study, a treatment is assigned to groups and all units within the group are exposed to the treatment. We develop a new method for statistical adjustment in clustered observational studies using approximate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-06 Luke Keele , Eli Ben-Michael , Lindsay Page

In comparative studies, such as in causal inference and clinical trials, balancing important covariates is often one of the most important concerns for both efficient and credible comparison. However, chance imbalance still exists in many…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-30 Yichen Qin , Yang Li , Wei Ma , Feifang Hu

Estimation and inference of treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignments often suffer from bias and the `curse of dimensionality' due to the nonparametric estimation of nuisance parameters for high-dimensional confounders.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Zeqi Wu , Meilin Wang , Wei Huang , Zheng Zhang

Inferring the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in an observational study requires adjusting for observed baseline confounders to avoid bias. However, adjusting for all observed baseline covariates, when only a subset are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-04 Wen Wei Loh , Stijn Vansteelandt

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-27 Kolyan Ray , Botond Szabo

Most work in causal inference considers deterministic interventions that set each unit's treatment to some fixed value. However, under positivity violations these interventions can lead to non-identification, inefficiency, and effects with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-20 Edward H. Kennedy

Theoretical guarantees for causal inference using propensity scores are partly based on the scores behaving like conditional probabilities. However, scores between zero and one, especially when outputted by flexible statistical estimators,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-12 Rom Gutman , Ehud Karavani , Yishai Shimoni

The partitioning of data for estimation and calibration critically impacts the performance of propensity score based estimators like inverse probability weighting (IPW) and double/debiased machine learning (DML) frameworks. We extend recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Sven Klaassen , Jan Rabenseifner , Jannis Kueck , Philipp Bach

Causal inference is crucial for understanding the true impact of interventions, policies, or actions, enabling informed decision-making and providing insights into the underlying mechanisms that shape our world. In this paper, we establish…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Jingyue Huang , Changbao Wu , Leilei Zeng

A fundamental limitation of causal inference in observational studies is that perceived evidence for an effect might instead be explained by factors not accounted for in the primary analysis. Methods for assessing the sensitivity of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-14 Colin B. Fogarty

We argue that randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are special even among settings where average treatment effects are identified by a nonparametric unconfoundedness assumption. This claim follows from two results of Robins and Ritov (1997):…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-28 P. M. Aronow , James M. Robins , Theo Saarinen , Fredrik Sävje , Jasjeet Sekhon

We develop methodology for causal inference in observational studies when using propensity score subclassification on data constructed with probabilistic record linkage techniques. We focus on scenarios where covariates and binary treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-03 Joan Heck Wortman , Jerome P. Reiter

Effect modification means the size of a treatment effect varies with an observed covariate. Generally speaking, a larger treatment effect with more stable error terms is less sensitive to bias. Thus, we might be able to conclude that a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Yijun Fan , Dylan S. Small

We propose a doubly robust approach to characterizing treatment effect heterogeneity in observational studies. We develop a frequentist inferential procedure that utilizes posterior distributions for both the propensity score and outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-21 Heejun Shin , Joseph Antonelli

Propensity score matching (PSM) is the de-facto standard for estimating causal effects in observational studies. We show that PSM and its implementations are susceptible to several major drawbacks and illustrate these findings using a case…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-20 Felix Bestehorn , Maike Bestehorn , Markus Bestehorn , Christian Kirches

Estimating the prevalence of a medical condition, or the proportion of the population in which it occurs, is a fundamental problem in healthcare and public health. Accurate estimates of the relative prevalence across groups -- capturing,…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Divya Shanmugam , Kaihua Hou , Emma Pierson

The generalized propensity score (GPS) is an extension of the propensity score for use with quantitative or continuous exposures (e.g., dose of medication or years of education). Current GPS methods allow estimation of the dose-response…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-01 Justin R. Williams , Catherine M. Crespi

In this paper we introduce SemiGPC, a distribution-aware label refinement strategy based on Gaussian Processes where the predictions of the model are derived from the labels posterior distribution. Differently from other buffer-based…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Abdelhak Lemkhenter , Manchen Wang , Luca Zancato , Gurumurthy Swaminathan , Paolo Favaro , Davide Modolo

In this manuscript, we investigate the concept of the mean response for a treatment group mean as well as its estimation and prediction for generalized linear models with a subject-wise random effect. Generalized linear models are commonly…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-05 Jiexin Duan , Michael Levine , Junxiang Luo , Yongming Qu

The estimation of causal treatment effects from observational data is a fundamental problem in causal inference. To avoid bias, the effect estimator must control for all confounders. Hence practitioners often collect data for as many…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-05 Kristjan Greenewald , Dmitriy Katz-Rogozhnikov , Karthik Shanmugam