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We consider learning causal relationships under conditional moment restrictions. Unlike causal inference under unconditional moment restrictions, conditional moment restrictions pose serious challenges for causal inference, especially in…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-30 Masahiro Kato , Masaaki Imaizumi , Kenichiro McAlinn , Haruo Kakehi , Shota Yasui

The conditional moment problem is a powerful formulation for describing structural causal parameters in terms of observables, a prominent example being instrumental variable regression. A standard approach reduces the problem to a finite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-24 Andrew Bennett , Nathan Kallus

We consider the problem of conditional density estimation, which is a major topic of interest in the fields of statistical and machine learning. Our method, called Marginal Contrastive Discrimination, MCD, reformulates the conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-05 Katia Meziani , Aminata Ndiaye , Benjamin Riu

This paper considers inference for conditional moment inequality models using a multiscale statistic. We derive the asymptotic distribution of this test statistic and use the result to propose feasible critical values that have a simple…

Applications · Statistics 2015-12-10 Timothy B. Armstrong , Hock Peng Chan

This Element offers a practical guide to estimating conditional marginal effects-how treatment effects vary with a moderating variable-using modern statistical methods. Commonly used approaches, such as linear interaction models, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Jiehan Liu , Ziyi Liu , Yiqing Xu

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-11 Ayush Bharti , Masha Naslidnyk , Oscar Key , Samuel Kaski , François-Xavier Briol

This article proposes a novel test for the martingale difference hypothesis based on the martingale difference divergence function, a recently developed dependence measure suitable for measuring the degree of conditional mean dependence of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-10 Luca Mattia Rolla

Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-14 Erik Spånberg

We develop a generalized method of moments (GMM) approach for fast parameter estimation in a new class of Dirichlet latent variable models with mixed data types. Parameter estimation via GMM has been demonstrated to have computational and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Shiwen Zhao , Barbara E. Engelhardt , Sayan Mukherjee , David B. Dunson

Novel significance tests are proposed for the quite general additive concurrent model formulation without the need of model, error structure preliminary estimation or the use of tuning parameters. Making use of the martingale difference…

We define two minimum distance estimators for dependent data by minimizing some approximated Maximum Mean Discrepancy distances between the true empirical distribution of observations and their assumed (parametric) model distribution. When…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-19 Pierre Alquier , Jean-David Fermanian , Benjamin Poignard

This paper obtains asymptotic results for parametric inference using prediction-based estimating functions when the data are high frequency observations of a diffusion process with an infinite time horizon. Specifically, the data are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-27 Emil S. Jørgensen , Michael Sørensen

Method of moment estimators exhibit appealing statistical properties, such as asymptotic unbiasedness, for nonconvex problems. However, they typically require a large number of samples and are extremely sensitive to model misspecification.…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-30 Dustin Tran , Minjae Kim , Finale Doshi-Velez

In this article, we introduce a conditional marginal model for longitudinal data, in which the residuals form a martingale difference sequence. This model allows us to consider a rich class of estimating equations, which contains several…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-07-15 R. M. Balan , L. Dumitrescu , I. Schiopu-Kratina

Variable screening has been a useful research area that deals with ultrahigh-dimensional data. When there exist both marginally and jointly dependent predictors to the response, existing methods such as conditional screening or iterative…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-10 Lei Fang , Qingcong Yuan , Xiangrong Yin , Chenglong Ye

Motivated by the sampling problems and heterogeneity issues common in high- dimensional big datasets, we consider a class of discordant additive index models. We propose method of moments based procedures for estimating the indices of such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-19 Krishnakumar Balasubramanian , Jianqing Fan , Zhuoran Yang

We develop moment estimators for the parameters of affine stochastic volatility models. We first address the challenge of calculating moments for the models by introducing a recursive equation for deriving closed-form expressions for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-20 Yan-Feng Wu , Xiangyu Yang , Jian-Qiang Hu

The Dynamic-Mode Decomposition (DMD) is a well established data-driven method of finding temporally evolving linear-mode decompositions of nonlinear time series. Traditionally, this method presumes that all relevant dimensions are sampled…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-01-13 Christopher W. Curtis , Daniel Jay Alford-Lago

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation. When such a temporal dimension is present, treatment influences not only the outcome value but also the outcome timing, which can move in opposite directions. Motivated by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-30 Michael Lindon , Nathan Kallus

This paper develops theory for feasible estimators of finite-dimensional parameters identified by general conditional quantile restrictions, under much weaker assumptions than previously seen in the literature. This includes instrumental…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-07 Luciano de Castro , Antonio F. Galvao , David M. Kaplan , Xin Liu
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