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A dynamical model consists of a continuous self-map $T: \mathcal{X} \to \mathcal{X}$ of a compact state space $\mathcal{X}$ and a continuous observation function $f: \mathcal{X} \to \mathbb{R}$. This paper considers the fitting of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-24 Kevin McGoff , Andrew B. Nobel

In this work, we study the weighted empirical risk minimization (weighted ERM) schema, in which an additional data-dependent weight function is incorporated when the empirical risk function is being minimized. We show that under a general…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Yikai Zhang , Jiahe Lin , Fengpei Li , Songzhu Zheng , Anant Raj , Anderson Schneider , Yuriy Nevmyvaka

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential in survival prediction, particularly in clinical settings where erroneous decisions carry high risk. Conformal prediction has attracted substantial attention as it offers a model-agnostic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Jaeyoung Shin , Chi Hyun Lee , Sangwook Kang

Smooth backfitting has proven to have a number of theoretical and practical advantages in structured regression. Smooth backfitting projects the data down onto the structured space of interest providing a direct link between data and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-07 Munir Hiabu , Enno Mammen , Maria Dolores Martinez-Miranda , Jens Perch Nielsen

Choosing relevant predictors is central to the analysis of biomedical time-to-event data. Classical frequentist inference, however, presumes that the set of covariates is fixed in advance and does not account for data-driven variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Lena Schemet , Sarah Friedrich-Welz

We consider situations where a user feeds her attributes to a machine learning method that tries to predict her best option based on a random sample of other users. The predictor is incentive-compatible if the user has no incentive to…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-07 Mehmet Caner , Kfir Eliaz

The density ratio is an important metric for evaluating the relative likelihood of two probability distributions, with extensive applications in statistics and machine learning. However, existing estimation theories for density ratios often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-03 Shuntuo Xu , Zhou Yu , Jian Huang

We consider the nonparametric estimation problem of time-dependent multivariate functions observed in a presence of additive cylindrical Gaussian white noise of a small intensity. We derive minimax lower bounds for the $L^2$-risk in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-02 Jérémie Bigot , Theofanis Sapatinas

We introduce a flexible individual frailty model for clustered right-censored data, in which covariate effects can be marginally interpreted as log failure odds ratios. Flexible correlation structures can be imposed by introducing…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-27 Rui Zhang Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

Fan, Gijbels and King [Ann. Statist. 25 (1997) 1661--1690] considered the estimation of the risk function $\psi (x)$ in the proportional hazards model. Their proposed estimator is based on integrating the estimated derivative function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-22 Songnian Chen , Lingzhi Zhou

We consider the problem of simultaneous variable selection and estimation of the corresponding regression coefficients in an ultra-high dimensional linear regression models, an extremely important problem in the recent era. The adaptive…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-22 Abhik Ghosh , Maria Jaenada , Leandro Pardo

This paper proposes a new approach to estimating the distribution of a response variable conditioned on observing some factors. The proposed approach possesses desirable properties of flexibility, interpretability, tractability and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-16 Cheng Peng , Stanislav Uryasev

We propose a robust estimator for the tail index of Pareto-type distributions under random right-censoring, constructed within the minimum density power divergence (MDPD) framework and based on the Nelson--Aalen estimator of the cumulative…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Nour Elhouda Guesmia , Abdelhakim Necir , Djamel Meraghni

The bias of the sample means of the arms in multi-armed bandits is an important issue in adaptive data analysis that has recently received considerable attention in the literature. Existing results relate in precise ways the sign and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-24 Jaehyeok Shin , Aaditya Ramdas , Alessandro Rinaldo

We study parametric inference on a rich class of hazard regression models in the presence of right-censoring. Previous literature has reported some inferential challenges, such as multimodal or flat likelihood surfaces, in this class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-10 F. J. Rubio , J. A. Espindola , J. A. Montoya

Additive regression provides an extension of linear regression by modeling the signal of a response as a sum of functions of covariates of relatively low complexity. We study penalized estimation in high-dimensional nonparametric additive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-25 Zhiqiang Tan , Cun-Hui Zhang

In this article, we construct semiparametrically efficient estimators of linear functionals of a probability measure in the presence of side information using an easy empirical likelihood approach. We use estimated constraint functions and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-01 Shan Wang , Hanxiang Peng

Many applied settings in empirical economics involve simultaneous estimation of a large number of parameters. In particular, applied economists are often interested in estimating the effects of many-valued treatments (like teacher effects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-04-03 Alberto Abadie , Maximilian Kasy

In this paper, we derive non-asymptotic error bounds for the Lasso estimator when the penalty parameter for the estimator is chosen using $K$-fold cross-validation. Our bounds imply that the cross-validated Lasso estimator has nearly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-07 Denis Chetverikov , Zhipeng Liao , Victor Chernozhukov

We develop and analyze $M$-estimation methods for divergence functionals and the likelihood ratios of two probability distributions. Our method is based on a non-asymptotic variational characterization of $f$-divergences, which allows the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-18 XuanLong Nguyen , Martin J. Wainwright , Michael I. Jordan
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