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As the amount of economic and other data generated worldwide increases vastly, a challenge for future generations of econometricians will be to master efficient algorithms for inference in empirical models with large information sets. This…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-27 Dimitris Korobilis , Davide Pettenuzzo

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a powerful tool for optimizing complex non-linear systems. However, its performance degrades in high-dimensional problems with tightly coupled parameters and highly asymmetric objective landscapes, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Aashwin Mishra , Matt Seaberg , Ryan Roussel , Daniel Ratner , Apurva Mehta

Bayesian optimization is a popular method for solving the problem of global optimization of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box function. It relies on a probabilistic surrogate model of the objective function, upon which an acquisition…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Jungtaek Kim , Seungjin Choi , Minsu Cho

We propose a model of inference and heuristic decision-making in groups that is rooted in the Bayes rule but avoids the complexities of rational inference in partially observed environments with incomplete information, which are…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2016-11-04 M. Amin Rahimian , Ali Jadbabaie

Improved computational power has enabled different disciplines to predict causal relationships among modeled variables using Bayesian network inference. While many alternative algorithms have been proposed to improve the efficiency and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-19 Habibolla Latifizadeh , Anika C. Pirkey , Alanna Gould , David J. Klinke

We consider optimization of composite objective functions, i.e., of the form $f(x)=g(h(x))$, where $h$ is a black-box derivative-free expensive-to-evaluate function with vector-valued outputs, and $g$ is a cheap-to-evaluate real-valued…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-05 Raul Astudillo , Peter I. Frazier

Bayesian optimization has proven to be a highly effective methodology for the global optimization of unknown, expensive and multimodal functions. The ability to accurately model distributions over functions is critical to the effectiveness…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-06-13 Jasper Snoek , Kevin Swersky , Richard S. Zemel , Ryan P. Adams

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Shachi Deshpande , Charles Marx , Volodymyr Kuleshov

Quality control in industrial processes is increasingly making use of prior scientific knowledge, often encoded in physical models that require numerical approximation. Statistical prediction, and subsequent optimization, is key to ensuring…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2018-10-23 Antony Overstall , David Woods , Kieran Martin

Discovering novel materials with desired properties is essential for driving innovation. Industry 4.0 and smart manufacturing have promised transformative advances in this area through real-time data integration and automated production…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Avijit Saha Asru , Hamed Khosravi , Imtiaz Ahmed , Abdullahil Azeem

Several fundamental problems in science and engineering consist of global optimization tasks involving unknown high-dimensional (black-box) functions that map a set of controllable variables to the outcomes of an expensive experiment.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-15 Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Michael Joly , Robert Yu , Soumalya Sarkar , Paris Perdikaris

The high cost and data scarcity in scientific exploration have motivated the use of large language models (LLMs) as knowledge-driven components in Bayesian optimization (BO). However, existing approaches typically embed LLMs directly into…

Machine learning methods usually depend on internal parameters -- so called hyperparameters -- that need to be optimized for best performance. Such optimization poses a burden on machine learning practitioners, requiring expert knowledge,…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2020-04-03 Annika Stuke , Patrick Rinke , Milica Todorović

The popularity of Bayesian optimization methods for efficient exploration of parameter spaces has lead to a series of papers applying Gaussian processes as surrogates in the optimization of functions. However, most proposed approaches only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-16 Javier González , Zhenwen Dai , Philipp Hennig , Neil D. Lawrence

The performance of deep (reinforcement) learning systems crucially depends on the choice of hyperparameters. Their tuning is notoriously expensive, typically requiring an iterative training process to run for numerous steps to convergence.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-19 Vu Nguyen , Sebastian Schulze , Michael A Osborne

In this work we combine two distinct machine learning methodologies, sequential Monte Carlo and Bayesian experimental design, and apply them to the problem of inferring the dynamical parameters of a quantum system. We design the algorithm…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2012-10-10 Christopher E. Granade , Christopher Ferrie , Nathan Wiebe , D. G. Cory

In a wide array of areas, algorithms are matching and surpassing the performance of human experts, leading to consideration of the roles of human judgment and algorithmic prediction in these domains. The discussion around these…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-04-01 Maithra Raghu , Katy Blumer , Greg Corrado , Jon Kleinberg , Ziad Obermeyer , Sendhil Mullainathan

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular technique for sequential black-box function optimization, with applications including parameter tuning, robotics, environmental monitoring, and more. One of the most important challenges in BO is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-29 Paul Rolland , Jonathan Scarlett , Ilija Bogunovic , Volkan Cevher

We consider Bayesian optimization of the output of a network of functions, where each function takes as input the output of its parent nodes, and where the network takes significant time to evaluate. Such problems arise, for example, in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-03 Raul Astudillo , Peter I. Frazier

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is an effective method for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions with a wide range of applications for example in robotics, system design and parameter optimization. However, scaling BO to problems…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-01-22 Lukas P. Fröhlich , Edgar D. Klenske , Christian G. Daniel , Melanie N. Zeilinger