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As the amount of economic and other data generated worldwide increases vastly, a challenge for future generations of econometricians will be to master efficient algorithms for inference in empirical models with large information sets. This…
Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a powerful tool for optimizing complex non-linear systems. However, its performance degrades in high-dimensional problems with tightly coupled parameters and highly asymmetric objective landscapes, where…
Bayesian optimization is a popular method for solving the problem of global optimization of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box function. It relies on a probabilistic surrogate model of the objective function, upon which an acquisition…
We propose a model of inference and heuristic decision-making in groups that is rooted in the Bayes rule but avoids the complexities of rational inference in partially observed environments with incomplete information, which are…
Improved computational power has enabled different disciplines to predict causal relationships among modeled variables using Bayesian network inference. While many alternative algorithms have been proposed to improve the efficiency and…
We consider optimization of composite objective functions, i.e., of the form $f(x)=g(h(x))$, where $h$ is a black-box derivative-free expensive-to-evaluate function with vector-valued outputs, and $g$ is a cheap-to-evaluate real-valued…
Bayesian optimization has proven to be a highly effective methodology for the global optimization of unknown, expensive and multimodal functions. The ability to accurately model distributions over functions is critical to the effectiveness…
Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…
Quality control in industrial processes is increasingly making use of prior scientific knowledge, often encoded in physical models that require numerical approximation. Statistical prediction, and subsequent optimization, is key to ensuring…
Discovering novel materials with desired properties is essential for driving innovation. Industry 4.0 and smart manufacturing have promised transformative advances in this area through real-time data integration and automated production…
Several fundamental problems in science and engineering consist of global optimization tasks involving unknown high-dimensional (black-box) functions that map a set of controllable variables to the outcomes of an expensive experiment.…
The high cost and data scarcity in scientific exploration have motivated the use of large language models (LLMs) as knowledge-driven components in Bayesian optimization (BO). However, existing approaches typically embed LLMs directly into…
Machine learning methods usually depend on internal parameters -- so called hyperparameters -- that need to be optimized for best performance. Such optimization poses a burden on machine learning practitioners, requiring expert knowledge,…
The popularity of Bayesian optimization methods for efficient exploration of parameter spaces has lead to a series of papers applying Gaussian processes as surrogates in the optimization of functions. However, most proposed approaches only…
The performance of deep (reinforcement) learning systems crucially depends on the choice of hyperparameters. Their tuning is notoriously expensive, typically requiring an iterative training process to run for numerous steps to convergence.…
In this work we combine two distinct machine learning methodologies, sequential Monte Carlo and Bayesian experimental design, and apply them to the problem of inferring the dynamical parameters of a quantum system. We design the algorithm…
In a wide array of areas, algorithms are matching and surpassing the performance of human experts, leading to consideration of the roles of human judgment and algorithmic prediction in these domains. The discussion around these…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular technique for sequential black-box function optimization, with applications including parameter tuning, robotics, environmental monitoring, and more. One of the most important challenges in BO is the…
We consider Bayesian optimization of the output of a network of functions, where each function takes as input the output of its parent nodes, and where the network takes significant time to evaluate. Such problems arise, for example, in…
Bayesian Optimization (BO) is an effective method for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions with a wide range of applications for example in robotics, system design and parameter optimization. However, scaling BO to problems…