Related papers: VARX Granger Analysis: Modeling, Inference, and Ap…

A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) process is a linear causal model for variables that evolve over a discrete set of time points and between which there may be lagged and instantaneous effects. The qualitative causal structure of an…

We study Granger causality testing for high-dimensional time series using regularized regressions. To perform proper inference, we rely on heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimation of the asymptotic variance and…

Granger causality is a commonly used method for uncovering information flow and dependencies in a time series. Here we introduce JGC (Jacobian Granger Causality), a neural network-based approach to Granger causality using the Jacobian as a…

Dynamic networks are commonly used in applications where relational data is observed over time. Statistical models for such data should capture not only the temporal dependencies between networks observed in time, but also the structural…

Training a multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) model with a sparse reward is generally difficult because numerous combinations of interactions among agents induce a certain outcome (i.e., success or failure). Earlier studies have…

Estimating long-term causal effects based on short-term surrogates is a significant but challenging problem in many real-world applications, e.g., marketing and medicine. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods…

Granger causality, commonly used for inferring causal structures from time series data, has been adopted in widespread applications across various fields due to its intuitive explainability and high compatibility with emerging deep neural…

We propose an approach for learning the causal structure in stochastic dynamical systems with a $1$-step functional dependency in the presence of latent variables. We propose an information-theoretic approach that allows us to recover the…

In this paper, we focus on estimating the causal effect of an intervention over time on a dynamical system. To that end, we formally define causal interventions and their effects over time on discrete-time stochastic processes (DSPs). Then,…

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems…

It is a challenging research endeavor to infer causal relationships in multivariate observational time-series. Such data may be represented by graphs, where nodes represent time-series, and edges directed causal influence scores between…

Random delays weaken the temporal correspondence between actions and subsequent state feedback, making it difficult for agents to identify the true propagation process of action effects. In cross-task scenarios, changes in task objectives…

Granger causality, a popular method for determining causal influence between stochastic processes, is most commonly estimated via linear autoregressive modeling. However, this approach has a serious drawback: if the process being modeled…

In model-based reinforcement learning, the agent interleaves between model learning and planning. These two components are inextricably intertwined. If the model is not able to provide sensible long-term prediction, the executed planner…

Here we dispel the lingering myth that Partial Directed Coherence is a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Modelling dependent concept. In fact, our examples show that it is spectral factorization that lies at its heart, for which VAR modelling is…

Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) models form a powerful and general model class for analyzing dynamics among multiple time series. While VARMA models encompass the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models, their popularity in…

Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually…

Granger causality (GC), a popular statistical method for the inference of directional influences between time series measured from a complex network, is sensitive to high-order (non-pairwise) interactions which fundamentally shape the…

Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…

Understanding causal relationships in time series is fundamental to many domains, including neuroscience, economics, and behavioral science. Granger causality is one of the well-known techniques for inferring causality in time series.…