Related papers: A probabilistic approach to drift estimation from …
In this paper, we consider the nonparametric estimation problem of the drift function of stochastic differential equations driven by $\alpha$-stable L\'{e}vy motion. First, the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the path probabilities of…
The behavior of many dynamical systems follow complex, yet still unknown partial differential equations (PDEs). While several machine learning methods have been proposed to learn PDEs directly from data, previous methods are limited to…
We introduce and test methods for the calibration of the diffusion term in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs) describing fluids. We take two approaches, one uses ideas from the singular value decomposition and the Biot-Savart…
Increasingly larger data sets of processes in space and time ask for statistical models and methods that can cope with such data. We show that the solution of a stochastic advection-diffusion partial differential equation provides a…
This paper studies path stabilities of the solution to stochastic differential equations (SDE) driven by time-changed L\'evy noise. The conditions for the solution of time-changed SDE to be path stable and exponentially path stable are…
Drift analysis aims at translating the expected progress of an evolutionary algorithm (or more generally, a random process) into a probabilistic guarantee on its run time (hitting time). So far, drift arguments have been successfully…
Data in the real world often has an evolving distribution. Thus, machine learning models trained on such data get outdated over time. This phenomenon is called model drift. Knowledge of this drift serves two purposes: (i) Retain an accurate…
Motivated by the recent advances in the theory of stochastic partial differential equations involving nonlinear functions of distributions, like the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation, we reconsider the unique solvability of one-dimensional…
We give a causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by defining the postintervention SDE resulting from an intervention in an SDE. We show that under Lipschitz conditions, the solution to the postintervention SDE is…
Despite extensive research, time series classification and forecasting on noisy data remain highly challenging. The main difficulties lie in finding suitable mathematical concepts to describe time series and effectively separate noise from…
We consider a process given as the solution of a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation with irregular, path dependent and time-inhomogeneous drift coefficient and additive noise. H\"older continuity of the Lebesgue density of…
This paper provides a systematic method to build wind speed models based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The resulting models produce stochastic processes with a given probability distribution and exponential decaying…
We review the application of Statistical Mechanics methods to the study of online learning of a drifting concept in the limit of large systems. The model where a feed-forward network learns from examples generated by a time dependent…
The notion of concept drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time. We are interested in an identification of those features, that are most relevant for the observed drift.…
White noise is a fundamental and fairly well understood stochastic process that conforms the conceptual basis for many other processes, as well as for the modeling of time series. Here we push a fresh perspective toward white noise that,…
We study asymptotic error distributions associated with standard approximation scheme for one-dimensional stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motions. This problem was studied by, for instance, Gradinaru-Nourdin…
We propose Monte Carlo calibration algorithms for three models: local volatility with stochastic interest rates, stochastic local volatility with deterministic interest rates, and finally stochastic local volatility with stochastic interest…
We study SDE $$ d X_t = b(X_t) \, dt + A(X_{t-}) \, d Z_t, \quad X_{0} = x \in \mathbb{R}^d, \quad t \geq 0 $$ where $Z=(Z^1, \dots, Z^d)^T$, with $Z^i, i=1,\dots, d$ being independent one-dimensional symmetric jump L\'evy processes, not…
The drift burst hypothesis postulates the existence of short-lived locally explosive trends in the price paths of financial assets. The recent U.S. equity and treasury flash crashes can be viewed as two high-profile manifestations of such…
We study the parameter estimation for parabolic, linear, second-order, stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) observing a mild solution on a discrete grid in time and space. A high-frequency regime is considered where the mesh of…