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This paper introduces an extended tensor decomposition (XTD) method for model reduction. The proposed method is based on a sparse non-separated enrichment to the conventional tensor decomposition, which is expected to improve the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Ye Lu , Satyajit Mojumder , Jiachen Guo , Yangfan Li , Wing Kam Liu

Isotonic distributional regression (IDR) is a powerful nonparametric technique for the estimation of conditional distributions under order restrictions. In a nutshell, IDR learns conditional distributions that are calibrated, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-29 Alexander Henzi , Johanna F. Ziegel , Tilmann Gneiting

We investigate the problem of inferring the causal predictors of a response $Y$ from a set of $d$ explanatory variables $(X^1,\dots,X^d)$. Classical ordinary least squares regression includes all predictors that reduce the variance of $Y$.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-29 Niklas Pfister , Peter Bühlmann , Jonas Peters

This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-09 Zifeng Zhao , Ting Fung Ma , Wai Leong Ng , Chun Yip Yau

In this work we introduce a new framework for performing temporal predictions in the presence of uncertainty. It is based on a simple idea of disentangling components of the future state which are predictable from those which are inherently…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-12-04 Mikael Henaff , Junbo Zhao , Yann LeCun

It is common practice to collect observations of feature and response pairs from different environments. A natural question is how to identify features that have consistent prediction power across environments. The invariant causal…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-07-01 Austin Goddard , Yu Xiang , Ilya Soloveychik

This work addresses inverse linear optimization where the goal is to infer the unknown cost vector of a linear program. Specifically, we consider the data-driven setting in which the available data are noisy observations of optimal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-07 Rishabh Gupta , Qi Zhang

Anomaly detection (AD) is the machine learning task of identifying highly discrepant abnormal samples by solely relying on the consistency of the normal training samples. Under the constraints of a distribution shift, the assumption that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-25 João B. S. Carvalho , Mengtao Zhang , Robin Geyer , Carlos Cotrini , Joachim M. Buhmann

Conformal prediction provides prediction sets with finite-sample marginal coverage, but many applications require coverage guarantees that adapt to individual test points, a subpopulation, or a structural component of the data. Existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Yinjie Min , Liuhua Peng , Changliang Zou

As environments evolve, temporal distribution shifts can degrade time series forecasting performance. A straightforward solution is to adapt to nonstationary changes while preserving stationary dependencies. Hence, some methods disentangle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Zijian Li , Ruichu Cai , Zhenhui Yang , Haiqin Huang , Guangyi Chen , Yifan Shen , Zhengming Chen , Xiangchen Song , Kun Zhang

As the role played by statistical and computational sciences in climate and environmental modelling and prediction becomes more important, Machine Learning researchers are becoming more aware of the relevance of their work to help tackle…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-23 Federico Amato , Fabian Guignard , Sylvain Robert , Mikhail Kanevski

A recent line of work in the machine learning community addresses the problem of predicting high-dimensional spatiotemporal phenomena by leveraging specific tools from the differential equations theory. Following this direction, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-24 Jérémie Donà , Jean-Yves Franceschi , Sylvain Lamprier , Patrick Gallinari

Learning the causal structure behind data is invaluable for improving generalization and obtaining high-quality explanations. We propose a novel framework, Invariant Structure Learning (ISL), that is designed to improve causal structure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-15 Yunhao Ge , Sercan Ö. Arik , Jinsung Yoon , Ao Xu , Laurent Itti , Tomas Pfister

This paper focuses on the invariance control problem for discrete-time switched nonlinear systems. The proposed approach computes controlled invariant sets in a finite number of iterations and directly yields a partition-based invariance…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-09-01 Yinan Li , Jun Liu

This paper proposes a physical-statistical modeling approach for spatio-temporal data arising from a class of stochastic convection-diffusion processes. Such processes are widely found in scientific and engineering applications where…

Applications · Statistics 2020-08-07 Xiao Liu , Kyongmin Yeo , Siyuan Lu

The Dynamic-Mode Decomposition (DMD) is a well established data-driven method of finding temporally evolving linear-mode decompositions of nonlinear time series. Traditionally, this method presumes that all relevant dimensions are sampled…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-01-13 Christopher W. Curtis , Daniel Jay Alford-Lago

Time series forecasting is crucial for many fields, such as disaster warning, weather prediction, and energy consumption. The Transformer-based models are considered to have revolutionized the field of sequence modeling. However, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Junlong Tong , Liping Xie , Wankou Yang , Kanjian Zhang

Intensive Longitudinal Data (ILD) is increasingly available to social and behavioral scientists. With this increased availability come new opportunities for modeling and predicting complex biological, behavioral, and physiological…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Zachary F. Fisher , Younghoon Kim , Barbara Fredrickson , Vladas Pipiras

We propose an efficient inference method for switching nonlinear dynamical systems. The key idea is to learn an inference network which can be used as a proposal distribution for the continuous latent variables, while performing exact…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Zhe Dong , Bryan A. Seybold , Kevin P. Murphy , Hung H. Bui

Invariant learning methods, aimed at identifying a consistent predictor across multiple environments, are gaining prominence in out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. Yet, when environments aren't inherent in the data, practitioners must…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Yufan Liao , Qi Wu , Zhaodi Wu , Xing Yan