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Borrowing external data can improve estimation efficiency but may introduce bias when populations differ in covariate distributions or outcome variability. A proper balance needs to be maintained between the two datasets to justify the…

The recent availability of huge, many-dimensional data sets, like those arising from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), provides many opportunities for strengthening causal inference. One popular approach is to utilize these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-21 Ioan Gabriel Bucur , Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes

Causal inference can be formalized as Bayesian inference that combines a prior distribution over causal models and likelihoods that account for both observations and interventions. We show that it is possible to implement this approach…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-01 Sam Witty , Alexander Lew , David Jensen , Vikash Mansinghka

We propose a new likelihood-based approach for estimation, inference and variable selection for parametric cure regression models in time-to-event analysis under random right-censoring. In this context, it often happens that some subjects…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-17 Kevin Burke , Valentin Patilea

The growing availability of large health databases has expanded the use of observational studies for comparative effectiveness research. Unlike randomized trials, observational studies must adjust for systematic differences in patient…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Haidong Lu , Fan Li , Laine E. Thomas , Fan Li

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 G. D'Agostini

Count outcomes in longitudinal studies are frequent in clinical and engineering studies. In frequentist and Bayesian statistical analysis, methods such as Mixed linear models allow the variability or correlation within individuals to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-15 Alejandra Estefanía Patiño Hoyos , Johnatan Cardona Jiménez

In this paper we propose a new Bayesian estimation method to solve linear inverse problems in signal and image restoration and reconstruction problems which has the property to be scale invariant. In general, Bayesian estimators are {\em…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Mohammad-Djafari , Jérôme Idier

Instrumental variable methods are fundamental to causal inference when treatment assignment is confounded by unobserved variables. In this article, we develop a general nonparametric causal framework for identification and learning with…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens

Causal inference relies on the untestable assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Sensitivity analysis can be used to quantify the impact of unmeasured confounding on causal estimates. Among sensitivity analysis methods proposed in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Yushu Zou , Liangyuan Hu , Amanda Ricciuto , Mark Deneau , Kuan Liu

We consider the problem of estimating quantile treatment effects without assuming strict overlap , i.e., we do not assume that the propensity score is bounded away from zero. More specifically, we consider an inverse probability weighting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Marco Avella-Medina , Richard Davis , Gennady Samorodnitsky

Causal decomposition analyses can help build the evidence base for interventions that address health disparities (inequities). They ask how disparities in outcomes may change under hypothetical intervention. Through study design and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-17 John W. Jackson

We propose novel estimators for categorical and continuous treatments by using an optimal covariate balancing strategy for inverse probability weighting. The resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-08 Seong-ho Lee , Yanyuan Ma , Xavier de Luna

Bayesian predictive probabilities are commonly used for interim monitoring of clinical trials through efficacy and futility stopping rules. Despite their usefulness, calculation of predictive probabilities, particularly in pre-experiment…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-18 Joe Marion , Liz Lorenzi , Cora Allen-Savietta , Scott Berry , Kert Viele

We study the problem of selecting covariates for unbiased estimation of the total causal effect.Existing approaches typically rely on global causal structure learning over all variables, or on strong assumptions such as causal sufficiency -…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-22 Zeyu Liu , Zheng Li , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Kun Zhang

For propensity score analysis and sparse estimation, we develop an information criterion for determining the regularization parameters needed in variable selection. First, for Gaussian distribution-based causal inference models, we extend…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-22 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

We address the weighting problem in voluntary samples under a nonignorable sample selection model. Under the assumption that the sample selection model is correctly specified, we can compute a consistent estimator of the model parameter and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-12 Jae Kwang Kim , Kosuke Morikawa

Understanding how treatment effects vary on individual characteristics is critical in the contexts of personalized medicine, personalized advertising and policy design. When the characteristics are of practical interest are only a subset of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-03 Peng Wu , ShaSha Han , Xingwei Tong , Runze Li