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We develop a fitted value iteration (FVI) method to compute bicausal optimal transport (OT) where couplings have an adapted structure. Based on the dynamic programming formulation, FVI adopts a function class to approximate the value…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-07 Erhan Bayraktar , Bingyan Han

To obtain uncertainty estimates with real-world Bayesian deep learning models, practical inference approximations are needed. Dropout variational inference (VI) for example has been used for machine vision and medical applications, but VI…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-03-09 Yingzhen Li , Yarin Gal

Variational inference with normalizing flows (NFs) is an increasingly popular alternative to MCMC methods. In particular, NFs based on coupling layers (Real NVPs) are frequently used due to their good empirical performance. In theory,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-27 Daniel Andrade

We propose Diffusion Model Variational Inference (DMVI), a novel method for automated approximate inference in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). DMVI utilizes diffusion models as variational approximations to the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Simon Dirmeier , Fernando Perez-Cruz

Bayesian inference for high-dimensional inverse problems is computationally costly and requires selecting a suitable prior distribution. Amortized variational inference addresses these challenges via a neural network that approximates the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-19 Ali Siahkoohi , Gabrio Rizzuti , Rafael Orozco , Felix J. Herrmann

We study data-driven decision-making problems in the Bayesian framework, where the expectation in the Bayes risk is replaced by a risk-sensitive entropic risk measure. We focus on problems where calculating the posterior distribution is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-13 Prateek Jaiswal , Harsha Honnappa , Vinayak A. Rao

Mean-field variational methods are widely used for approximate posterior inference in many probabilistic models. In a typical application, mean-field methods approximately compute the posterior with a coordinate-ascent optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-03-14 Chong Wang , David M. Blei

Bayesian optimization is a widely used technique for optimizing black-box functions, with Expected Improvement (EI) being the most commonly utilized acquisition function in this domain. While EI is often viewed as distinct from other…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-11 Nuojin Cheng , Stephen Becker

Weight space symmetries in neural network architectures, such as permutation symmetries in MLPs, give rise to Bayesian neural network (BNN) posteriors with many equivalent modes. This multimodality poses a challenge for variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Yoav Gelberg , Tycho F. A. van der Ouderaa , Mark van der Wilk , Yarin Gal

The steady-state Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) makes it possible to incorporate prior information about the long-run mean of the process. This has been shown in many studies to substantially improve forecasting performance, and the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-12 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani

Current variational inference methods for hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models can neither characterize the correlation structure among latent variables due to the mean-field setting, nor infer the true posterior dimension because of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-07 Yirui Liu , Xinghao Qiao , Jessica Lam

Inference models are a key component in scaling variational inference to deep latent variable models, most notably as encoder networks in variational auto-encoders (VAEs). By replacing conventional optimization-based inference with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-26 Joseph Marino , Yisong Yue , Stephan Mandt

We develop a framework for generalized variational inference in infinite-dimensional function spaces and use it to construct a method termed Gaussian Wasserstein inference (GWI). GWI leverages the Wasserstein distance between Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-18 Veit D. Wild , Robert Hu , Dino Sejdinovic

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular model for density estimation and representation learning. Canonically, the variational principle suggests to prefer an expressive inference model so that the variational approximation is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-10 Rui Shu , Hung H. Bui , Shengjia Zhao , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Stefano Ermon

Few Bayesian methods for analyzing high-dimensional sparse survival data provide scalable variable selection, effect estimation and uncertainty quantification. Such methods often either sacrifice uncertainty quantification by computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-06 Michael Komodromos , Eric Aboagye , Marina Evangelou , Sarah Filippi , Kolyan Ray

We describe a limitation in the expressiveness of the predictive uncertainty estimate given by mean-field variational inference (MFVI), a popular approximate inference method for Bayesian neural networks. In particular, MFVI fails to give…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-28 Andrew Y. K. Foong , Yingzhen Li , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Richard E. Turner

Deriving Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is a challenging "doubly intractable" problem as the normalizing constants of the likelihood and posterior density are both intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-26 Linda S. L. Tan , Nial Friel

We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian inference in log-supermodular models. These models encompass regular pairwise MRFs with binary variables, but allow to capture high-order interactions, which are intractable for existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-02-25 Josip Djolonga , Andreas Krause

Variational Bayes (VB) provides a computationally efficient alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo, especially for high-dimensional and large-scale inference. However, existing theory on VB primarily focuses on fixed-dimensional settings…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-05 Jiawei Yan , Peirong Xu , Tao Wang

Normalising-flow variational inference (VI) can approximate complex posteriors, yet single-flow models often behave inconsistently across qualitatively different distributions. We propose Adaptive Mixture Flow Variational Inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Benjamin Wiriyapong , Oktay Karakuş , Kirill Sidorov