Related papers: Exponentially Weighted Moving Models
Zero-inflated models are frequently used to deal with data having many zeros. A commonly used model for over-dispersed data containing zeros is known as the zero-inflated Poisson model. However, to account for the heterogeneity of counts…
Weight averaging of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) iterates is a popular method for training deep learning models. While it is often used as part of complex training pipelines to improve generalization or serve as a `teacher' model,…
We study the problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional generalized linear models, and propose an approach based on sample-weighted empirical risk minimization. Our method, Weighted ERM, encodes priors on the change points via…
Simple Exponential Smoothing is a classical technique used for smoothing time series data by assigning exponentially decreasing weights to past observations through a recursive equation; it is sometimes presented as a rule of thumb…
When constructing parametric models to predict the cost of future claims, several important details have to be taken into account: (i) models should be designed to accommodate deductibles, policy limits, and coinsurance factors, (ii)…
Time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) often develop sharp fronts, localized peaks, and other moving structures that occupy only a small portion of the space--time domain but dominate the approximation error. This makes fixed…
Time-dependent ensemble averages, i.e., trajectory-based averages of some observable, are of importance in many fields of science. A crucial objective when interpreting such data is to fit these averages (for instance, squared…
Classifying streaming data requires the development of methods which are computationally efficient and able to cope with changes in the underlying distribution of the stream, a phenomenon known in the literature as concept drift. We propose…
This paper presents the exact mathematical derivation of the mean and variance properties for the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistic applied to binomial proportion monitoring in Multiple Stream Processes (MSPs). We…
To address model uncertainty under flexible loss functions in prediction problems, we propose a model averaging method that accommodates various loss functions, including asymmetric linear and quadratic loss functions, as well as many other…
This paper deals with some nonlinear problems which exponential and biexponential decays are involved in. A proof of the quasiconvexity of the error function in some of these problems of optimization is presented. This proof is restricted…
Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) is a popular data-driven method to approximate the action of the Koopman operator on a linear function space spanned by a dictionary of functions. The accuracy of EDMD model critically depends on…
We introduce a covariance matrix estimator that both takes into account the heteroskedasticity of financial returns (by using an exponentially weighted moving average) and reduces the effective dimensionality of the estimation (and hence…
We propose an explicit recursive method to approximate a power-law with a finite sum of weighted exponentials. Applications to moving averages with long memory are discussed in relationship with stochastic volatility models.
Exponential smoothers are a simple and memory efficient way to compute running averages of time series. Here we define and describe practical properties of exponential smoothers for signals observed at constant and variable intervals.
The Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) technique is a machine learning approach for constructing feed-forward neural networks with a single hidden layer and their models. The ELM model can be constructed while being trained by concurrently…
In optimization for Machine learning (ML), it is typical that curvature-matrix (CM) estimates rely on an exponential average (EA) of local estimates (giving EA-CM algorithms). This approach has little principled justification, but is very…
Networked data, in which every training example involves two objects and may share some common objects with others, is used in many machine learning tasks such as learning to rank and link prediction. A challenge of learning from networked…
This paper proposes a new approach to sales forecasting for new products with long lead time but short product life cycle. These SKUs are usually sold for one season only, without any replenishments. An exponential factorization machine…
The problem of universally predicting an individual continuous sequence using a deterministic finite-state machine (FSM) is considered. The empirical mean is used as a reference as it is the constant that fits a given sequence within a…