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Sequential probabilistic inference from streaming observations requires modeling distributions over future trajectories as new observations arrive. Although diffusion and flow-matching models are effective at capturing high-dimensional,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Yinan Huang , Hans Hao-Hsun Hsu , Junran Wang , Bo Dai , Pan Li

We consider the problem of estimating the transition dynamics $T^*$ from near-optimal expert trajectories in the context of offline model-based reinforcement learning. We develop a novel constraint-based method, Inverse Transition Learning,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Leo Benac , Abhishek Sharma , Sonali Parbhoo , Finale Doshi-Velez

We study a sequential contextual decision-making problem in which certain covariates are missing but can be imputed using a pre-trained AI model. From a theoretical perspective, we analyze how the presence of such a model influences the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Haichen Hu , David Simchi-Levi

Reinforcement learning can learn amortised design policies for designing sequences of experiments. However, current amortised methods rely on estimators of expected information gain (EIG) that require an exponential number of samples on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Tom Blau , Iadine Chades , Amir Dezfouli , Daniel Steinberg , Edwin V. Bonilla

This work investigates the sequential hypothesis testing problem with online sensor selection and sensor usage constraints. That is, in a sensor network, the fusion center sequentially acquires samples by selecting one "most informative"…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-26 Shang Li , Xiaoou Li , Xiaodong Wang , Jingchen Liu

Sequential Bayesian optimal experimental design (SBOED) for PDE-governed inverse problems is computationally challenging, especially for infinite-dimensional random field parameters. High-fidelity approaches require repeated forward and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-12 Kaichen Shen , Peng Chen

For autonomous agents to successfully operate in the real world, anticipation of future events and states of their environment is a key competence. This problem can be formalized as a sequence prediction problem, where a number of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-10-01 Apratim Bhattacharyya , Mario Fritz , Bernt Schiele

Causal inference in observational studies is notoriously difficult, due to the fact that the experimenter is not in charge of the treatment assignment mechanism. Many potential con- founding factors (PCFs) exist in such a scenario, and if…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-15 Vadim von Brzeski , Matt Taddy , David Draper

A wide range of machine learning algorithms iteratively add data to the training sample. Examples include semi-supervised learning, active learning, multi-armed bandits, and Bayesian optimization. We embed this kind of data addition into…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Julian Rodemann

Aleatoric and Epistemic uncertainty have achieved recent attention in the literature as different sources from which uncertainty can emerge in stochastic modeling. Epistemic being intrinsic or model based notions of uncertainty, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-15 Ryan Warnick

Background: Pairwise and network meta-analyses using fixed effect and random effects models are commonly applied to synthesise evidence from randomised controlled trials. The models differ in their assumptions and the interpretation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-04 Shijie Ren , Jeremy E. Oakley , John W. Stevens

The behavior of many Bayesian models used in machine learning critically depends on the choice of prior distributions, controlled by some hyperparameters that are typically selected by Bayesian optimization or cross-validation. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-09 Eliezer de Souza da Silva , Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Marcelo Hartmann , Arto Klami

Meta-learning has proven to be successful for few-shot learning across the regression, classification, and reinforcement learning paradigms. Recent approaches have adopted Bayesian interpretations to improve gradient-based meta-learners by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Amrith Setlur , Saket Dingliwal , Barnabas Poczos

Hierarchical probabilistic models, such as Gaussian mixture models, are widely used for unsupervised learning tasks. These models consist of observable and latent variables, which represent the observable data and the underlying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-26 Keisuke Yamazaki

Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

Understanding how adult humans learn non-native speech categories such as tone information has shed novel insights into the mechanisms underlying experience-dependent brain plasticity. Scientists have traditionally examined these questions…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Giorgio Paulon , Fernando Llanos , Bharath Chandrasekaran , Abhra Sarkar

Classification is an important task in many fields including biomedical research and machine learning. Traditionally, a classification rule is constructed based a bunch of labeled data. Recently, due to technological innovation and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-19 Jing Wang , Eunsik Park , Yuan-chin Ivan Chang

The effectiveness of learning in massive open online courses (MOOCs) can be significantly enhanced by introducing personalized intervention schemes which rely on building predictive models of student learning behaviors such as some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-20 Mucong Ding , Kai Yang , Dit-Yan Yeung , Ting-Chuen Pong

Addressing uncertainty is critical for autonomous systems to robustly adapt to the real world. We formulate the problem of model uncertainty as a continuous Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Process (BAMDP), where an agent maintains a…

In supervised learning, we fit a single statistical model to a given data set, assuming that the data is associated with a singular task, which yields well-tuned models for specific use, but does not adapt well to new contexts. By contrast,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-11 Bingjia Wang , Alec Koppel , Vikram Krishnamurthy