Related papers: Confidence Intervals on Multivariate Normal Quanti…
We present a new Monte Carlo methodology for the accurate estimation of the distribution of the sum of dependent log-normal random variables. The methodology delivers statistically unbiased estimators for three distributional quantities of…
Crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) has been an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) workhorse to study materials behaviors and structure-property relationships for the last few decades. These relations are…
Estimation of extreme quantile regions, spaces in which future extreme events can occur with a given low probability, even beyond the range of the observed data, is an important task in the analysis of extremes. Existing methods to estimate…
We develop a modular approach to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for unnormalized target densities. In this approach, Markov chains are constructed in parallel, each constrained to a subset of the target space. The Monte Carlo…
Learning strategies for imperfect information games from samples of interaction is a challenging problem. A common method for this setting, Monte Carlo Counterfactual Regret Minimization (MCCFR), can have slow long-term convergence rates…
Confidence interval (CI) methods for stratified bilateral studies use intraclass correlation to avoid misleading results. In this article, we propose four CI methods (sample-size weighted global MLE-based Wald-type CI, complete MLE-based…
This paper introduces a new constraint domain for reasoning about data with uncertainty. It extends convex modeling with the notion of p-box to gain additional quantifiable information on the data whereabouts. Unlike existing approaches,…
In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…
Quantum Monte Carlo methods are used to calculate various ground state properties of charged bosons in two dimensions, throughout the whole density range where the fluid phase is stable. Wigner crystallization is predicted at $r_s\simeq…
Two of the most significant challenges in uncertainty quantification pertain to the high computational cost for simulating complex physical models and the high dimension of the random inputs. In applications of practical interest, both of…
Classifiers based on neural networks (NN) often lack a measure of uncertainty in the predicted class. We propose a method to estimate the probability mass function (PMF) of the different classes, as well as the covariance of the estimated…
The Reduced-Basis Control-Variate Monte-Carlo method was introduced recently in [S. Boyaval and T. Leli\`evre, CMS, 8 2010] as an improved Monte-Carlo method, for the fast estimation of many parametrized expected values at many parameter…
Pixel-space full spectrum fitting exploiting non-linear $\chi^2$ minimization became a \emph{de facto} standard way of deriving internal kinematics from absorption line spectra of galaxies and star clusters. However, reliable estimation of…
We investigate the Monte Carlo approach to propagation of experimental uncertainties within the context of the established "MSTW 2008" global analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton at next-to-leading order in the…
We consider quantile estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo and establish conditions under which the sampling distribution of the Monte Carlo error is approximately Normal. Further, we investigate techniques to estimate the associated…
In this study, we give an extension of Montanaro's arXiv/archive:1504.06987 quantum Monte Carlo method, tailored for computing expected values of random variables that exhibit infinite variance. This addresses a challenge in analyzing…
Many problems in materials science and biology involve particles interacting with strong, short-ranged bonds, that can break and form on experimental timescales. Treating such bonds as constraints can significantly speed up sampling their…
Monte Carlo methods to evaluate and maximize the likelihood function enable the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests, facilitating scientific investigation using models for which the likelihood function is intractable.…
Quantum-mechanical methods are widely used for understanding molecular interactions throughout biology, chemistry, and materials science. Quantum diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) and coupled cluster with single, double, and perturbative triple…
We study time harmonic acoustic scattering on large deviation rough random scatterers. Therein, the roughness of the scatterers is caused by a low Sobolev regularity in the covariance function of their deformation field. The motivation for…