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Constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) are used as a decision-making framework to study the long-run performance of a stochastic system. It is well-known that a stationary optimal policy of a CMDP problem under discounted cost…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-02 V Varagapriya , Vikas Vikram Singh , Abdel Lisser

This paper is concerned with a data-driven technique for constructing finite Markov decision processes (MDPs) as finite abstractions of discrete-time stochastic control systems with unknown dynamics while providing formal closeness…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-30 Abolfazl Lavaei , Sadegh Soudjani , Emilio Frazzoli , Majid Zamani

This study introduces a comparative modeling framework using stationary and non-stationary transition probabilities within a Markov Decision Process (MDP) to assess COVID-19 disease dynamics. Stationary transition probabilities assume…

Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) are notably more complex to solve than standard MDPs due to the absence of universally optimal policies across all initial state distributions. This necessitates re-solving the CMDP whenever the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Alperen Tercan , Necmiye Ozay

Markov chains are simple yet powerful mathematical structures to model temporally dependent processes. They generally assume stationary data, i.e., fixed transition probabilities between observations/states. However, live, real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-27 Kutalmış Coşkun , Borahan Tümer , Bjarne C. Hiller , Martin Becker

Stochastic model-predictive control (SMPC) has evolved to a powerful framework for the control of stochastic dynamical systems. SMPC utilizes a probabilistic uncertainty description to provide a systematic trade-off between the control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-27 Bendegúz Györök , Roland Tóth , Maarten Schoukens , Tamás Péni

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is the first theory for decision-making under uncertainty that combines full theoretical soundness and empirically realistic features [P.P. Wakker - Prospect theory: For risk and ambiguity, Page 2]. While…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-05-15 Thomas Brihaye , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Stefanie Mohr , Maximilian Weininger

Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) MDPs is a problem class widely studied in AI, especially in probabilistic planning. They describe a wide range of scenarios but make the restrictive assumption that the goal is reachable from any state, i.e.,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-10-19 Andrey Kolobov , Mausam , Daniel Weld

We consider conditional tests for non-negative discrete exponential families. We develop two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which allow us to sample from the conditional space and to perform approximated tests. The first…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-27 Roberto Fontana , Francesca Romana Crucinio

This paper presents a hierarchical decision-making framework for autonomous systems operating under uncertainty, demonstrated through autonomous driving as a representative application. Surrounding agents are modeled using Hybrid Markov…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-19 Siyuan Li , Chengyuan Liu , Wen-Hua Chen

The possibility of errors in human-engineered formal verification software, such as model checkers, poses a serious threat to the purpose of these tools. An established approach to mitigate this problem are certificates -- lightweight,…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Krishnendu Chatterjee , Tim Quatmann , Maximilian Schäffeler , Maximilian Weininger , Tobias Winkler , Daniel Zilken

We develop a qualitative theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Partially Observable MDPs that can be used to model sequential decision making tasks when only qualitative information is available. Our approach is based upon an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Blai Bonet , Judea Pearl

Controlling stochastic systems with unknown dynamics and under complex specifications is specially challenging in safety-critical settings, where performance guarantees are essential. We propose a data-driven policy synthesis framework that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-17 Ibon Gracia , Morteza Lahijanian

We consider finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes where parameters, such as transition probabilities, are unknown and estimated from data. The popular distributionally robust approach to addressing the parameter uncertainty can sometimes…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-07 Yifan Lin , Yuxuan Ren , Enlu Zhou

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-23 David W. Hogg , Daniel Foreman-Mackey

In this paper, we propose a general theory of ambiguity-averse MDPs, which treats the uncertain transition probabilities as random variables and evaluates a policy via a risk measure applied to its random return. This ambiguity-averse MDP…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Axel Benyamine , Julien Grand-Clément , Marek Petrik , Michael I. Jordan , Alain Durmus

Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-05-10 Stefan Kiefer , A. Prasad Sistla

Markov decision processes model systems subject to nondeterministic and probabilistic uncertainty. A plethora of verification techniques addresses variations of reachability properties, such as: Is there a scheduler resolving the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Lina Gerlach , Tobias Winkler , Erika Ábrahám , Borzoo Bonakdarpour , Sebastian Junges

Optimal control in non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDP) is a challenging problem. The aim in such a control problem is to maximize the long-term discounted reward when the transition dynamics or the reward function can change over…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-03 Taposh Banerjee , Miao Liu , Jonathan P. How

Within the framework of probably approximately correct Markov decision processes (PAC-MDP), much theoretical work has focused on methods to attain near optimality after a relatively long period of learning and exploration. However,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-04-06 Kenji Kawaguchi