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We propose a data-driven framework to learn interaction kernels in stochastic multi-agent systems. Our approach aims at identifying the functional form of nonlocal interaction and diffusion terms directly from trajectory data, without any a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Giacomo Albi , Alessandro Alla , Elisa Calzola

We study causal inference in a multi-environment setting, in which the functional relations for producing the variables from their direct causes remain the same across environments, while the distribution of exogenous noises may vary. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-29 AmirEmad Ghassami , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang

We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of unobserved confounding, but where proxies for the latent confounder(s) are observed. We propose two kernel-based methods for nonlinear causal effect estimation in this…

We consider linear non-Gaussian structural equation models that involve latent confounding. In this setting, the causal structure is identifiable, but, in general, it is not possible to identify the specific causal effects. Instead, a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-12 Daniela Schkoda , Elina Robeva , Mathias Drton

Inverse problems and, in particular, inferring unknown or latent parameters from data are ubiquitous in engineering simulations. A predominant viewpoint in identifying unknown parameters is Bayesian inference where both prior information…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-31 Vahid Keshavarzzadeh , Robert M. Kirby , Akil Narayan

Causal systems often exhibit variations of the underlying causal mechanisms between the variables of the system. Often, these changes are driven by different environments or internal states in which the system operates, and we refer to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Wiebke Günther , Oana-Iuliana Popescu , Martin Rabel , Urmi Ninad , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

Structural causal models provide a unified semantics for interventions and counterfactuals, but most identifiability results rely on restrictive assumptions like global monotonicity, which are often violated in embodied interaction, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Pengcheng Tan , Jiang Chen , Dehui Du

Real-world problems, for example in climate applications, often require causal reasoning on spatially gridded time series data or data with comparable structure. While the underlying system is often believed to behave similarly at different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Martin Rabel , Jakob Runge

This work extends causal inference with stochastic confounders. We propose a new approach to variational estimation for causal inference based on a representer theorem with a random input space. We estimate causal effects involving latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-26 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Wicher Bergsma , Tze-Yun Leong

We propose a class of nonlocal diffusion systems on time-varying domains, and fully characterize their asymptotic dynamics in the asymptotically fixed, time-periodic and unbounded cases. The kernel is not necessarily symmetric or compactly…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Xiandong Lin , Hailong Ye , Xiao-Qiang Zhao

Many frameworks exist to infer cause and effect relations in complex nonlinear systems but a complete theory is lacking. A new framework is presented that is fully nonlinear, provides a complete information theoretic disentanglement of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-12 Peter Jan van Leeuwen , Michael DeCaria , Nachiketa Chakaborty , Manuel Pulido

We consider the problem of estimating a particular type of linear non-Gaussian model. Without resorting to the overcomplete Independent Component Analysis (ICA), we show that under some mild assumptions, the model is uniquely identified by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-29 Wei Chen , Kun Zhang , Ruichu Cai , Biwei Huang , Joseph Ramsey , Zhifeng Hao , Clark Glymour

Causal inference in spatio-temporal settings is critically hindered by unmeasured confounders with complex spatio-temporal dynamics and the prevalence of multi-resolution data. While diffusion models present a promising avenue for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Xinwen Liu , Lei Qian , Song Xi Chen , Niansheng Tang

Owing to the cross-pollination between causal discovery and deep learning, non-statistical data (e.g., images, text, etc.) encounters significant conflicts in terms of properties and methods with traditional causal data. To unify these data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-14 Hang Chen , Xinyu Yang , Qing Yang

Granger causality is widely used for causal structure discovery in complex systems from multivariate time series data. Traditional Granger causality tests based on linear models often fail to detect even mild non-linear causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Ziyi Zhang , Shaogang Ren , Xiaoning Qian , Nick Duffield

Due to the challenge posed by multi-source and heterogeneous data collected from diverse environments, causal relationships among features can exhibit variations influenced by different time spans, regions, or strategies. This diversity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Lu Liu , Yang Tang , Kexuan Zhang , Qiyu Sun

Previously, we showed that computational mechanic's causal states -- predictively-equivalent trajectory classes for a stochastic dynamical system -- can be cast into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The result is a widely-applicable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Alexandra M. Jurgens , Nicolas Brodu

Causality analysis is a powerful tool for determining cause-and-effect relationships between variables in a system by quantifying the influence of one variable on another. Despite significant advancements in the field, many existing studies…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Justin Lien

Discovering the complete set of causal relations among a group of variables is a challenging unsupervised learning problem. Often, this challenge is compounded by the fact that there are latent or hidden confounders. When only observational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-19 Anqi Liu , Hao Liu , Tongxin Li , Saeed Karimi-Bidhendi , Yisong Yue , Anima Anandkumar

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen
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