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Under interference, the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. Such interference patterns between units are typically represented by a network. Correctly specifying this network requires identifying which units can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Bar Weinstein , Daniel Nevo

We study causal effect estimation under interference from network data. We work under the chain-graph formulation pioneered in Tchetgen Tchetgen et. al (2021). Our first result shows that polynomial time evaluation of treatment effects is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-10 Sohom Bhattacharya , Subhabrata Sen

The task of inferring high-level causal variables from low-level observations, commonly referred to as causal representation learning, is fundamentally underconstrained. As such, recent works to address this problem focus on various…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-26 Simon Bing , Urmi Ninad , Jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

Environmental epidemiologists are increasingly interested in establishing causality between exposures and health outcomes. A popular model for causal inference is the Rubin Causal Model (RCM), which typically seeks to estimate the average…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-26 Keith W. Zirkle , Marie-Abele Bind , Jenise L. Swall , David C. Wheeler

In many fields$\unicode{x2013}$including genomics, epidemiology, natural language processing, social and behavioral sciences, and economics$\unicode{x2013}$it is increasingly important to address causal questions in the context of factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-30 Jenna M. Landy , Dafne Zorzetto , Roberta De Vito , Giovanni Parmigiani

We study causal inference in randomized experiments (or quasi-experiments) following a $2\times 2$ factorial design. There are two treatments, denoted $A$ and $B$, and units are randomly assigned to one of four categories: treatment $A$…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-12 Mate Kormos , Robert P. Lieli , Martin Huber

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte

We propose a set of causal estimands that we call the "mediated probabilities of causation." These estimands quantify the probabilities that an observed negative outcome was induced via a mediating pathway versus a direct pathway in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-14 Max Rubinstein , Maria Cuellar , Daniel Malinsky

Estimating the effects of interventions in networks is complicated when the units are interacting, such that the outcomes for one unit may depend on the treatment assignment and behavior of many or all other units (i.e., there is…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-15 Dean Eckles , Brian Karrer , Johan Ugander

In the field of road safety, it is common to use responsibility analyses to assess the effect of a given factor on the risk of being responsible for an accident, among drivers involved in an accident only. Even if this design is now widely…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-16 Marine Dufournet , Emilie Lanoy , Jean-Louis Martin , Vivian Viallon

A bipartite experiment consists of one set of units being assigned treatments and another set of units for which we measure outcomes. The two sets of units are connected by a bipartite graph, governing how the treated units can affect the…

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-10 Liuyi Yao , Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li , Yaliang Li , Jing Gao , Aidong Zhang

We address the problem of inferring the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome across space, using observational data. The data is possibly subject to unmeasured confounding variables which, in a standard approach, must be adjusted for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-04 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Thomas B. Schön

In the context of having an instrumental variable, the standard practice in causal inference begins by targeting an effect of interest and proceeds by formulating assumptions enabling its identification. We turn this around by adhering to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Carlos García Meixide , Mark J. van der Laan

Micro-randomized trials are commonly conducted for optimizing mobile health interventions such as push notifications for behavior change. In analyzing such trials, causal excursion effects are often of primary interest, and their estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-19 Yihan Bao , Lauren Bell , Elizabeth Williamson , Claire Garnett , Tianchen Qian

A pressing question resulting from global warming is how infectious diseases will be affected by climate change. Answering this question requires research into the effects of weather on the population dynamics of transmission and infection;…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-02-21 Laura Andrea Barrero Guevara , Sarah C Kramer , Tobias Kurth , Matthieu Domenech de Cellès

In classical causal inference, inferring cause-effect relations from data relies on the assumption that units are independent and identically distributed. This assumption is violated in settings where units are related through a network of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Razieh Nabi , Joel Pfeiffer , Murat Ali Bayir , Denis Charles , Emre Kıcıman

Estimating the treatment effect within network structures is a key focus in online controlled experiments, particularly for social media platforms. We investigate a scenario where the unit-level outcome of interest comprises a series of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-28 Yilin Li , Lu Deng , Yong Wang , Wang Miao

This paper provides a nonparametric framework for causal inference with categorical outcomes under binary treatment and binary instrument settings. I decompose the observed joint probability of outcomes and treatment into marginal…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-11 Onil Boussim

Estimating the causal effect of a time-varying public health intervention on the course of an infectious disease epidemic is an important methodological challenge. During the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers attempted to estimate the effects…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-20 Yichi Zhang , Forrest W. Crawford
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