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Win statistics, including the win ratio, net benefit, and win odds, summarize treatment effects on hierarchical composite endpoints by sequentially comparing patient pairs on component outcomes ordered by clinical importance, proceeding to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Xi Fang , Fan Li

In this paper, we tackle the resolution of chance-constrained problems reformulated via Sample Average Approximation. The resulting data-driven deterministic reformulation takes the form of a large-scale mixed-integer program cursed with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-27 Álvaro Porras , Concepción Domínguez , Juan M. Morales , Salvador Pineda

The win ratio offers a flexible approach to incorporate the hierarchy of clinical outcomes into the analysis of a composite endpoint, enabling simultaneous consideration of multiple outcome types, unlike traditional time-to-first-event…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 David Kronthaler , Matthias Schwenkglenks , Felix Beuschlein , Ulrike Held

When developing a clinical prediction model, the sample size of the development dataset is a key consideration. Small sample sizes lead to greater concerns of overfitting, instability, poor performance and lack of fairness. Previous…

In this paper, I try to tame "Basu's elephants" (data with extreme selection on observables). I propose new practical large-sample and finite-sample methods for estimating and inferring heterogeneous causal effects (under unconfoundedness)…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-20 Ganesh Karapakula

The assurance method is growing in popularity in clinical trial planning. The method involves eliciting a prior distribution for the treatment effect, and then calculating the probability that a proposed trial will produce a `successful'…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-30 Ziyad A. Alhussain , Jeremy E. Oakley

Scenario decision making offers a flexible way of making decision in an uncertain environment while obtaining probabilistic guarantees on the risk of failure of the decision. The idea of this approach is to draw samples of the uncertainty…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Guillaume O. Berger

In this paper, we develop an exact method for the determination of the minimum sample size for estimating the proportion of a finite population with prescribed margin of error and confidence level. By characterizing the behavior of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-03 Xinjia Chen

Conventional methods for analyzing composite endpoints in clinical trials often only focus on the time to the first occurrence of all events in the composite. Therefore, they have inherent limitations because the individual patients' first…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-29 Jialu Wang , Yeh-Fong Chen , Thomas Gwise

Probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling schemes with a target sample size aim to produce a sample comprising a specified number $n$ of items while ensuring that each item in the population appears in the sample with a probability…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Brian Hentschel , Peter J. Haas , Yuanyuan Tian

Win measures, including the win ratio (WR), win odds (WO), net benefit (NB), and desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR), are increasingly used in randomized clinical trials with multiple hierarchical ordinal endpoints. In practice, however,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Yi Liu , Huiman Barnhart , Sean O'Brien , Yuliya Lokhnygina , Roland A. Matsouaka

Multiple and combined endpoints involving also non-normal outcomes appear in many clinical trials in various areas in medicine. In some cases, the outcome can be observed only on an ordinal or dichotomous scale. Then the success of two…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-24 Edgar Brunner

Reliability is probability of success in a success-failure experiment. Confidence in reliability estimate improves with increasing number of samples. Assurance sets confidence level same as reliability to create one number for easier…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-07 Sanjay M. Joshi

Estimating the probability of the binomial distribution is a basic problem, which appears in almost all introductory statistics courses and is performed frequently in various studies. In some cases, the parameter of interest is a difference…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-21 Almog Peer , David Azriel

Ordinal outcomes are common in clinical settings where they often represent increasing levels of disease progression or different levels of functional impairment. Such outcomes can characterize differences in meaningful patient health…

We study the empirical likelihood approach to construct confidence intervals for the optimal value and the optimality gap of a given solution, henceforth quantify the statistical uncertainty of sample average approximation, for optimization…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-25 Henry Lam , Enlu Zhou

The probabilities of causation are commonly used to solve decision-making problems. Tian and Pearl derived sharp bounds for the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Ang Li , Ruirui Mao , Judea Pearl

Clinical prediction models are estimated using a sample of limited size from the target population, leading to uncertainty in predictions, even when the model is correctly specified. Generally, not all patient profiles are observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-09 Doranne Thomassen , Saskia le Cessie , Hans van Houwelingen , Ewout Steyerberg

Composite endpoints are frequently used as primary or secondary analyses in cardiovascular clinical trials to increase clinical relevance and statistical efficiency. Alternatively, the Win Ratio (WR) and other Win Statistics (WS) analyses…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Yunhan Mou , Scott Hummel , Yuan Huang

In this paper, we develop an approach for the exact determination of the minimum sample size for estimating the parameter of an integer-valued random variable, which is parameterized by its expectation. Under some continuity and unimodal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-20 Xinjia Chen , Zhengjia Chen