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Accurately quantifying uncertainty in predictions and projections arising from irreducible internal climate variability is critical for informed decision making. Such uncertainty is typically assessed using ensembles produced with physics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Parsa Gooya , Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso , Johannes Exenberger

Reliable estimation of network-wide traffic states is essential for urban traffic management. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), with their airborne full-sample continuous trajectory observation, bring new opportunities for traffic state…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-29 Jiarong Yao , Chaopeng Tan , Meng Wang , Wei Ma

Agent behavior is arguably the greatest source of uncertainty in trajectory planning for autonomous vehicles. This problem has motivated significant amounts of work in the behavior prediction community on learning rich distributions of the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-07-16 Allen Wang , Ashkan Jasour , Brian Williams

Transportation systems have long been shaped by complexity and heterogeneity, driven by the interdependency of agent actions and traffic outcomes. The deployment of automated vehicles (AVs) in such systems introduces a new challenge:…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Mohammad Elayan , Wissam Kontar

Motion prediction of surrounding agents is an important task in context of autonomous driving since it is closely related to driver's safety. Vehicle Motion Prediction (VMP) track of Shifts Challenge focuses on developing models which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Alexey Pustynnikov , Dmitry Eremeev

As a core technology of the autonomous driving system, pedestrian trajectory prediction can significantly enhance the function of active vehicle safety and reduce road traffic injuries. In traffic scenes, when encountering with oncoming…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-14 Tong Su , Yu Meng , Yan Xu

Developing a dynamic model for a high-performance vehicle is a complex problem that requires extensive structural information about the system under analysis. This information is often unavailable to those who did not design the vehicle and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Girolamo Oddo , Roberto Nuca , Matteo Parsani

We present the design of a motion planning algorithm that ensures safety for an autonomous vehicle. In particular, we consider a multimodal distribution over uncertainties; for example, the uncertain predictions of future trajectories of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-09-01 Heejin Ahn , Colin Chen , Ian M. Mitchell , Maryam Kamgarpour

Whether deterministic or stochastic, models can be viewed as functions designed to approximate a specific quantity of interest. We introduce Minimal Empirical Variance Aggregation (MEVA), a data-driven framework that integrates predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Théo Bourdais , Houman Owhadi

Accurate trajectory prediction is fundamental to autonomous driving, as it underpins safe motion planning and collision avoidance in complex environments. However, existing benchmark datasets suffer from a pronounced long-tail distribution…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Ruining Yang , Yi Xu , Yixiao Chen , Yun Fu , Lili Su

The capability to detect objects is a core part of autonomous driving. Due to sensor noise and incomplete data, perfectly detecting and localizing every object is infeasible. Therefore, it is important for a detector to provide the amount…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-04 Gregory P. Meyer , Niranjan Thakurdesai

Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) for Sequential Recommendation (SR), which learns a continuous distribution for each user-item interaction sequence rather than a determinate embedding, is robust against data deficiency and achieves significant…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Beibei Li , Tao Xiang , Beihong Jin , Yiyuan Zheng , Rui Zhao

As attention to recorded data grows in the realm of automotive testing and manual evaluation reaches its limits, there is a growing need for automatic online anomaly detection. This real-world data is complex in many ways and requires the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Lucas Correia , Jan-Christoph Goos , Philipp Klein , Thomas Bäck , Anna V. Kononova

Predicting future frames for a video sequence is a challenging generative modeling task. Promising approaches include probabilistic latent variable models such as the Variational Auto-Encoder. While VAEs can handle uncertainty and model…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-04-30 Lluis Castrejon , Nicolas Ballas , Aaron Courville

Recent advances in autonomous driving for uncrewed ground vehicles (UGVs) have spurred significant development, particularly in challenging terrains. This paper introduces a classification system assessing various UGV deployments reported…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-05-02 Nicolas Samson , Dominic Baril , Julien Lépine , François Pomerleau

The public transportation system of Cuernavaca, Mexico, exhibits random matrix theory statistics [1]. In particular, the fluctuation of times between the arrival of buses on a given bus stop, follows the Wigner surmise for the Gaussian…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-09-11 Piotr Warchoł

Forecasting the future trajectories of surrounding agents is crucial for autonomous vehicles to ensure safe, efficient, and comfortable route planning. While model ensembling has improved prediction accuracy in various fields, its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-23 Aron Distelzweig , Eitan Kosman , Andreas Look , Faris Janjoš , Denesh K. Manivannan , Abhinav Valada

Future urban transportation concepts include a mixture of ground and air vehicles with varying degrees of autonomy in a congested environment. In such dynamic environments, occupancy maps alone are not sufficient for safe path planning.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-07-26 Ransalu Senanayake , Kyle Beltran Hatch , Jason Zheng , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Autonomous vehicles must navigate dynamically uncertain environments while balancing safety and efficiency. This challenge is exacerbated by unpredictable human-driven vehicle (HV) behaviors and perception inaccuracies, necessitating…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Rui Yang , Lei Zheng , Shuzhi Sam Ge , Jun Ma

Temporal prediction is critical for making intelligent and robust decisions in complex dynamic environments. Motion prediction needs to model the inherently uncertain future which often contains multiple potential outcomes, due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-10 Yichuan Charlie Tang , Ruslan Salakhutdinov
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