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We propose a novel Bayesian approach to the problem of variable selection in multiple linear regression models. In particular, we present a hierarchical setting which allows for direct specification of a-priori beliefs about the number of…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-14 Konstantin Posch , Maximilian Arbeiter , Jürgen Pilz

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

Count data is prevalent in various fields like ecology, medical research, and genomics. In high-dimensional settings, where the number of features exceeds the sample size, feature selection becomes essential. While frequentist methods like…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-22 The Tien Mai

Many asymptotically minimax procedures for function estimation often rely on somewhat arbitrary and restrictive assumptions such as isotropy or spatial homogeneity. This work enhances the theoretical understanding of Bayesian additive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-05 Seonghyun Jeong , Veronika Rockova

The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-18 Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan

We study full Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional linear regression. We adopt data-dependent empirical priors introduced in [1]. In their paper, these priors have nice posterior contraction properties and are easy to compute. Our paper…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-14 Xiao Fang , Malay Ghosh

We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series, a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing sparse…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Zoey Yi Zhao , Meng Xie , Mike West

How to estimate heterogeneity, e.g. the effect of some variable differing across observations, is a key question in political science. Methods for doing so make simplifying assumptions about the underlying nature of the heterogeneity to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-31 Max Goplerud

Regression classes modeling more than the mean of the response have found a lot of attention in the last years. Expectile regression is a special and computationally convenient case of this family of models. Expectiles offer a quantile-like…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-19 Elisabeth Waldmann , Fabian Sobotka , Thomas Kneib

We consider the prediction of weak effects in a multiple-output regression setup, when covariates are expected to explain a small amount, less than $\approx 1%$, of the variance of the target variables. To facilitate the prediction of the…

Given a supervised machine learning problem where the training set has been subject to a known sampling bias, how can a model be trained to fit the original dataset? We achieve this through the Bayesian inference framework by altering the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-16 Max Sklar

Due to spatial dependence -- often characterized as complex and non-linear -- model misspecification is a prevalent and critical issue in spatial data analysis and prediction. As the data, and thus model performance, is heterogeneous,…

We empirically show that Bayesian inference can be inconsistent under misspecification in simple linear regression problems, both in a model averaging/selection and in a Bayesian ridge regression setting. We use the standard linear model,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-30 Peter Grünwald , Thijs van Ommen

Modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks, despite recent important advances, is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are a powerful solution, where the prior over network weights is a design choice, often a normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Yaniv Gurwicz , Shami Nisimov , Gal Novik

We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-12 Gregor Kastner , Florian Huber

For exponentially distributed lifetimes, we consider the prediction of future order statistics based on having observed the first $m$ order statistics. We focus on the previously less explored aspects of predicting: (i) an arbitrary pair of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Akbar Asgharzadeh , Éric Marchand , Ali Saadati Nik

In this paper, we develop an {\em epsilon admissible subsets} (EAS) model selection approach for performing group variable selection in the high-dimensional multivariate regression setting. This EAS strategy is designed to estimate a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Salil Koner , Jonathan P Williams

Sparse Bayesian factor models are routinely implemented for parsimonious dependence modeling and dimensionality reduction in high-dimensional applications. We provide theoretical understanding of such Bayesian procedures in terms of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-03 Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya , Natesh S. Pillai , David Dunson

This paper studies posterior contraction rates in multi-category logit models with priors incorporating group sparse structures. We consider a general class of logit models that includes the well-known multinomial logit models as a special…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-01 Seonghyun Jeong

We consider Bayesian variable selection in sparse high-dimensional regression, where the number of covariates $p$ may be large relative to the samples size $n$, but at most a moderate number $q$ of covariates are active. Specifically, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-31 Rina Foygel Barber , Mathias Drton , Kean Ming Tan
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