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Large language models (LLMs) have shown to be increasingly capable of performing reasoning tasks, but their ability to make sequential decisions under uncertainty only using natural language remains underexplored. We introduce a novel…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Jimin Lim , Arjun Damerla , Arthur Jiang , Nam Le

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being explored across a range of reasoning tasks. However, LLMs sometimes struggle with reasoning tasks under uncertainty that are relatively easy for humans, such as planning actions in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Ziwei Deng , Mian Deng , Chenjing Liang , Zeming Gao , Chennan Ma , Chenxing Lin , Haipeng Zhang , Songzhu Mei , Siqi Shen , Cheng Wang

Accurately quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is crucial for their reliable deployment, especially in high-stakes applications. Current state-of-the-art methods for measuring semantic uncertainty in LLMs rely on strict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yashvir S. Grewal , Edwin V. Bonilla , Thang D. Bui

In-context learning enables large language models (LLMs) to perform a variety of tasks, including learning to make reward-maximizing choices in simple bandit tasks. Given their potential use as (autonomous) decision-making agents, it is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-21 William M. Hayes , Nicolas Yax , Stefano Palminteri

Current evaluations of large language models (LLMs) often overlook non-determinism, typically focusing on a single output per example. This limits our understanding of LLM performance variability in real-world applications. Our study…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Yifan Song , Guoyin Wang , Sujian Li , Bill Yuchen Lin

The output of Large Language Models (LLMs) are a function of the internal model's parameters and the input provided into the context window. The hypothesis presented here is that under a greedy sampling strategy the variance in the LLM's…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-20 Srijith Rajamohan , Ahmed Salhin , Josh Frazier , Rohit Kumar , Yu-Cheng Tsai , Todd Cook

Large-language models (LLMs) and chatbot agents are known to provide wrong outputs at times, and it was recently found that this can never be fully prevented. Hence, uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role, aiming to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Michael Kirchhof , Gjergji Kasneci , Enkelejda Kasneci

We introduce a framework for Thompson sampling (TS) contextual bandit algorithms, in which the algorithm's ability to quantify uncertainty and make decisions depends on the quality of a generative model that is learned offline. Instead of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Kelly W. Zhang , Tiffany Tianhui Cai , Hongseok Namkoong , Daniel Russo

Bandit algorithms and Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools in artificial intelligence, each addressing distinct yet complementary challenges in decision-making and natural language processing. This survey explores the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Djallel Bouneffouf , Raphael Feraud

The success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked interest in various agentic applications. A key hypothesis is that LLMs, leveraging common sense and Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning, can effectively explore and efficiently solve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Thomas Schmied , Jörg Bornschein , Jordi Grau-Moya , Markus Wulfmeier , Razvan Pascanu

We study Contextual Multi-Armed Bandits (CMABs) for non-episodic sequential decision making problems where the context includes both textual and numerical information (e.g., recommendation systems, dynamic portfolio adjustments, offer…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Uljad Berdica , Fernando Acero , Anton Ipsen , Parisa Zehtabi , Michael Cashmore , Manuela Veloso

Contextual bandits constitute a classical framework for decision-making under uncertainty. In this setting, the goal is to learn the arms of highest reward subject to contextual information, while the unknown reward parameters of each arm…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-19 Hongju Park , Mohamad Kazem Shirani Faradonbeh

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in social science simulations. While their performance on reasoning and optimization tasks has been extensively evaluated, less attention has been paid to their ability to simulate human…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Yuanjun Feng , Vivek Choudhary , Yash Raj Shrestha

Despite their widespread adoption, large language models (LLMs) remain prohibitive to use under resource constraints, with their ever growing sizes only increasing the barrier for use. One noted issue is the high latency associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Jerry Huang , Prasanna Parthasarathi , Mehdi Rezagholizadeh , Sarath Chandar

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become fundamental to a broad spectrum of artificial intelligence applications. As the use of LLMs expands, precisely estimating the uncertainty in their predictions has become crucial.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Mohammad Beigi , Sijia Wang , Ying Shen , Zihao Lin , Adithya Kulkarni , Jianfeng He , Feng Chen , Ming Jin , Jin-Hee Cho , Dawei Zhou , Chang-Tien Lu , Lifu Huang

Human decision-making belongs to the foundation of our society and civilization, but we are on the verge of a future where much of it will be delegated to artificial intelligence. The arrival of Large Language Models (LLMs) has transformed…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Hao Li , Gengrui Zhang , Petter Holme , Shuyue Hu , Zhen Wang

Thompson sampling is an efficient algorithm for sequential decision making, which exploits the posterior uncertainty to address the exploration-exploitation dilemma. There has been significant recent interest in integrating Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Zhendong Wang , Mingyuan Zhou

Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about a latent entity is a critical task in many application domains, e.g., assessing individual student learning outcomes, diagnosing underlying diseases, or learning user preferences. Though…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Jimmy Wang , Thomas Zollo , Richard Zemel , Hongseok Namkoong

Decoding strategies manipulate the probability distribution underlying the output of a language model and can therefore affect both generation quality and its uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the impact of decoding strategies on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Wataru Hashimoto , Hidetaka Kamigaito , Taro Watanabe

The emergence of large language models (LLMs) has substantially influenced natural language processing, demonstrating exceptional results across various tasks. In this study, we employ ``Introspective Tips" to facilitate LLMs in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-22 Liting Chen , Lu Wang , Hang Dong , Yali Du , Jie Yan , Fangkai Yang , Shuang Li , Pu Zhao , Si Qin , Saravan Rajmohan , Qingwei Lin , Dongmei Zhang
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