Related papers: Improved Semi-Parametric Bounds for Tail Probabili…
We present a universal concentration bound for sums of random variables under arbitrary dependence, and we prove that it is asymptotically optimal for broad families of marginals admitting a uniform integrable tail-quantile envelope. The…
Using terminologies of information geometry, we derive upper and lower bounds of the tail probability of the sample mean. Employing these bounds, we obtain upper and lower bounds of the minimum error probability of the 2nd kind of error…
In this paper, I present a completely new type of upper and lower bounds on the right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables with unbounded support and with semi-bounded support from the left. The presented upper and lower…
We derive instance-dependent tail bounds for the regret of optimism-based reinforcement learning in finite-horizon tabular Markov decision processes with unknown transition dynamics. We first study a UCBVI-type (model-based) algorithm and…
The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…
We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…
We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…
We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…
Meta learning is a promising paradigm in the era of large models and task distributional robustness has become an indispensable consideration in real-world scenarios. Recent advances have examined the effectiveness of tail task risk…
This work introduces the minimax Laplace transform method, a modification of the cumulant-based matrix Laplace transform method developed in "User-friendly tail bounds for sums of random matrices" (arXiv:1004.4389v6) that yields both upper…
We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we…
The probability that the sum of independent, centered, identically distributed, heavy-tailed random variables achieves a very large value is asymptotically equal to the probability that there exists a single summand equalling that value. We…
The minimax risk is often considered as a gold standard against which we can compare specific statistical procedures. Nevertheless, as has been observed recently in robust and heavy-tailed estimation problems, the inherent reduction of the…
In this paper, according to a certain criterion, we divide the exponential distribution class into three subclasses. One of them is closely related to the regular-variation-tailed distribution class, so it is called the…
Measures of tail dependence between random variables aim to numerically quantify the degree of association between their extreme realizations. Existing tail dependence coefficients (TDCs) are based on an asymptotic analysis of relevant…
For a risk vector $V$, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by…
In the world of modern financial theory, portfolio construction has traditionally operated under at least one of two central assumptions: the constraints are derived from a utility function and/or the multivariate probability distribution…
Understanding the generalization properties of heavy-tailed stochastic optimization algorithms has attracted increasing attention over the past years. While illuminating interesting aspects of stochastic optimizers by using heavy-tailed…
Let $Y=\sum_{k\ge 1} 1_{A_k}$ be an infinite sum of the indicators of independent events. We investigate a precise (as opposed to logarithmic) first-order asymptotic behavior of the tail probabilities $\mathbb{P}\{Y\ge n\}$ and the point…
The Markov, Chebyshev, and Chernoff inequalities are some of the most widely used methods for bounding the tail probabilities of random variables. In all three cases, the bounds are tight in the sense that there exists easy examples where…