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Model collapse occurs when generative models degrade after repeatedly training on their own synthetic outputs. We study this effect in overparameterized linear regression in a setting where each iteration mixes fresh real labels with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-13 Anvit Garg , Sohom Bhattacharya , Pragya Sur

A major challenge in machine learning is resilience to out-of-distribution data, that is data that exists outside of the distribution of a model's training data. Training is often performed using limited, carefully curated datasets and so…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Christopher J. Holder , Majid Khonji , Jorge Dias , Muhammad Shafique

In real word applications, data generating process for training a machine learning model often differs from what the model encounters in the test stage. Understanding how and whether machine learning models generalize under such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-08 Abdulkadir Canatar , Blake Bordelon , Cengiz Pehlevan

We consider a statistical inverse learning problem, where we observe the image of a function $f$ through a linear operator $A$ at i.i.d. random design points $X_i$, superposed with an additive noise. The distribution of the design points is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-04-15 Gilles Blanchard , Nicole Mücke

Designing deep neural network classifiers that perform robustly on distributions differing from the available training data is an active area of machine learning research. However, out-of-distribution generalization for regression-the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-01 Benjamin Eyre , Elliot Creager , David Madras , Vardan Papyan , Richard Zemel

Enhancing the stability of machine learning algorithms under distributional shifts is at the heart of the Out-of-Distribution (OOD) Generalization problem. Derived from causal learning, recent works of invariant learning pursue strict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-15 Jiashuo Liu , Jiayun Wu , Jie Peng , Xiaoyu Wu , Yang Zheng , Bo Li , Peng Cui

Neural networks are often utilised in critical domain applications (e.g. self-driving cars, financial markets, and aerospace engineering), even though they exhibit overconfident predictions for ambiguous inputs. This deficiency demonstrates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-03 John Mitros , Brian Mac Namee

Selecting the best regularization parameter in inverse problems is a classical and yet challenging problem. Recently, data-driven approaches have become popular to tackle this challenge. These approaches are appealing since they do require…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-22 Jonathan Chirinos Rodriguez , Ernesto De Vito , Cesare Molinari , Lorenzo Rosasco , Silvia Villa

A new generalized ridge regression shrinkage path is proposed that is as short as possible under the restriction that it must pass through the vector of regression coefficient estimators that make the overall Optimal Variance-Bias Trade-Off…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-19 Robert L. Obenchain

Machine learning models are often brittle under distribution shift, i.e., when data distributions at test time differ from those during training. Understanding this failure mode is central to identifying and mitigating safety risks of mass…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-04 Alex Nguyen , David J. Schwab , Vudtiwat Ngampruetikorn

Temporal distribution shifts pose a key challenge for machine learning models trained and deployed in dynamically evolving environments. This paper introduces RIDER (RIsk minimization under Dynamically Evolving Regimes) which derives…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-18 Yujin Jeong , Ramesh Johari , Dominik Rothenhäusler , Emily Fox

As training datasets grow larger, we aspire to develop models that generalize well to any diverse test distribution, even if the latter deviates significantly from the training data. Various approaches like domain adaptation, domain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Andreas Loukas , Karolis Martinkus , Ed Wagstaff , Kyunghyun Cho

In many modern applications of deep learning the neural network has many more parameters than the data points used for its training. Motivated by those practices, a large body of recent theoretical research has been devoted to studying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-07 A. Tsigler , P. L. Bartlett

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection aims to identify test examples that do not belong to the training distribution and are thus unlikely to be predicted reliably. Despite a plethora of existing works, most of them focused only on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Reza Averly , Wei-Lun Chao

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Alessio Mazzetto , Eli Upfal

A Two-Stage approach enables researchers to make optimal non-linear predictions via Generalized Ridge Regression using models that contain two or more x-predictor variables and make only realistic minimal assumptions. The optimal regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Robert L. Obenchain

Recent development in the data-driven decision science has seen great advances in individualized decision making. Given data with individual covariates, treatment assignments and outcomes, policy makers best individualized treatment rule…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Weibin Mo , Zhengling Qi , Yufeng Liu

Understanding the generalization of deep neural networks is one of the most important tasks in deep learning. Although much progress has been made, theoretical error bounds still often behave disparately from empirical observations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Ching-Yao Chuang , Youssef Mroueh , Kristjan Greenewald , Antonio Torralba , Stefanie Jegelka

The Ridgeless minimum $\ell_2$-norm interpolator in overparametrized linear regression has attracted considerable attention in recent years in both machine learning and statistics communities. While it seems to defy conventional wisdom that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Qiyang Han , Xiaocong Xu

Models like LASSO and ridge regression are extensively used in practice due to their interpretability, ease of use, and strong theoretical guarantees. Cross-validation (CV) is widely used for hyperparameter tuning in these models, but do…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-03 William T. Stephenson , Zachary Frangella , Madeleine Udell , Tamara Broderick