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Adaptive populations such as those in financial markets and distributed control can be modeled by the Minority Game. We consider how their dynamics depends on the agents' initial preferences of strategies, when the agents use linear or…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-13 H. M. Yang , Y. S. Ting , K. Y. Michael Wong

We propose a data-driven method to establish probabilistic performance guarantees for parametric optimization problems solved via iterative algorithms. Our approach addresses two key challenges: providing convergence guarantees to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-31 Jingyi Huang , Paul Goulart , Kostas Margellos

In this paper, we present a unified framework for decision making under uncertainty. Our framework is based on the composite of two risk measures, where the inner risk measure accounts for the risk of decision given the exact distribution…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-01-07 Pengyu Qian , Zizhuo Wang , Zaiwen Wen

Autonomous agents that operate in the real world must often deal with partial observability, which is commonly modeled as partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). However, traditional POMDP models rely on the assumption of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-08-03 Moran Barenboim , Idan Lev-Yehudi , Vadim Indelman

Conditional risk minimization arises in high-stakes decisions where risk must be assessed in light of side information, such as stressed economic conditions, specific customer profiles, or other contextual covariates. Constructing reliable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Xinqiao Xie , Jonathan Yu-Meng Li

From autonomous driving to package delivery, ensuring safe yet efficient multi-agent interaction is challenging as the interaction dynamics are influenced by hard-to-model factors such as social norms and contextual cues. Understanding…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-11 Isaac Remy , David Fridovich-Keil , Karen Leung

In the application of machine learning to real-life decision-making systems, e.g., credit scoring and criminal justice, the prediction outcomes might discriminate against people with sensitive attributes, leading to unfairness. The commonly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-21 Suyun Liu , Luis Nunes Vicente

In problems that involve input parameter information gathered from multiple data sources with varying reliability, incorporating decision makers' trust on different sources in optimization models can potentially improve solution…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Yanru Guo , Ruiwei Jiang , Siqian Shen

We introduce a novel framework to account for sensitivity to rewards uncertainty in sequential decision-making problems. While risk-sensitive formulations for Markov decision processes studied so far focus on the distribution of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-16 Nelson Vadori , Sumitra Ganesh , Prashant Reddy , Manuela Veloso

Typically, machine learning models are trained and evaluated without making any distinction between users (e.g, using traditional hold-out and cross-validation). However, this produces inaccurate performance metrics estimates in multi-user…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Enrique Garcia-Ceja , Luciano Garcia-Banuelos , Nicolas Jourdan

Safe control of constrained linear systems under both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is considered. The aleatory uncertainty characterizes random noises and is modeled by a probability distribution function (PDF) and the epistemic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-28 Hamidreza Modares

Variational approaches based on neural networks are showing promise for estimating mutual information (MI) between high dimensional variables. However, they can be difficult to use in practice due to poorly understood bias/variance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-25 Jiaming Song , Stefano Ermon

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are formal models commonly used in sequential decision-making. MDPs capture the stochasticity that may arise, for instance, from imprecise actuators via probabilities in the transition function. However, in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Marnix Suilen , Thiago D. Simão , David Parker , Nils Jansen

Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Wenbin Zhou , Shixiang Zhu

Controlling stochastic systems with unknown dynamics and under complex specifications is specially challenging in safety-critical settings, where performance guarantees are essential. We propose a data-driven policy synthesis framework that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-17 Ibon Gracia , Morteza Lahijanian

In this work, we propose a meta-learning-based Koopman modeling and predictive control approach for nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties. An adaptive deep meta-learning-based modeling approach, called Meta Adaptive Koopman…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-01 Minghao Han , Kiwan Wong , Adrian Wing-Keung Law , Xunyuan Yin

We propose a distributionally robust return-risk model for Markov decision processes (MDPs) under risk and reward ambiguity. The proposed model optimizes the weighted average of mean and percentile performances, and it covers the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-05 Haolin Ruan , Zhi Chen , Chin Pang Ho

Automated synthesis of correct-by-construction controllers for autonomous systems is crucial for their deployment in safety-critical scenarios. Such autonomous systems are naturally modeled as stochastic dynamical models. The general…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-17 Thom Badings , Nils Jansen , Licio Romao , Alessandro Abate

We propose a learning framework for calibrating predictive models to make loss-controlling prediction for exchangeable data, which extends our recently proposed conformal loss-controlling prediction for more general cases. By comparison,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Junzhi Shi , Pingping Wang , Shuo Zhuang , Hongyue Li

Using theory and experiments, this paper shows that the difficulty of making tradeoffs offers a parsimonious explanation for a wide range of behavioral phenomena. We develop a model of imprecise comparisons applicable to multiattribute,…

General Economics · Economics 2026-04-01 Cassidy Shubatt , Jeffrey Yang