Related papers: Overlap violations in external validity

There are two general views in causal analysis of experimental data: the super population view that the units are an independent sample from some hypothetical infinite populations, and the finite population view that the potential outcomes…

Estimating causal effects with propensity scores relies upon the availability of treated and untreated units observed at each value of the estimated propensity score. In settings with strong confounding, limited so-called "overlap" in…

We establish a renormalization group approach which is implemented on the degrees of freedom defined by the overlap of two replicas to determine the critical fixed point and to extract four critical exponents for the phase transition of the…

This paper provides a critical review of the Bayesian perspective of causal inference based on the potential outcomes framework. We review the causal estimands, identification assumptions, the general structure of Bayesian inference of…

Leveraging external controls -- relevant individual patient data under control from external trials or real-world data -- has the potential to reduce the cost of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) while increasing the proportion of trial…

In this work, we propose an approach for assessing sensitivity to unobserved confounding in studies with multiple outcomes. We demonstrate how prior knowledge unique to the multi-outcome setting can be leveraged to strengthen causal…

Experimental and observational studies often lack validity due to untestable assumptions. We propose a double machine learning approach to combine experimental and observational studies, allowing practitioners to test for assumption…

In an observational study, it is common to leverage known null effect to detect bias. One such strategy is to set aside a placebo sample -- a subset of data immune from the hypothesized cause-and-effect relationship. Existence of an effect…

We consider a causal inference model in which individuals interact in a social network and they may not comply with the assigned treatments. In particular, we suppose that the form of network interference is unknown to researchers. To…

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

This paper shows how to use a randomized saturation experimental design to identify and estimate causal effects in the presence of spillovers--one person's treatment may affect another's outcome--and one-sided non-compliance--subjects can…

The NLP community typically relies on performance of a model on a held-out test set to assess generalization. Performance drops observed in datasets outside of official test sets are generally attributed to "out-of-distribution" effects.…

Randomized experiments are an excellent tool for estimating internally valid causal effects with the sample at hand, but their external validity is frequently debated. While classical results on the estimation of Population Average…

This paper proposes an easy-to-compute upper bound for the overlap index between two probability distributions without requiring any knowledge of the distribution models. The computation of our bound is time-efficient and memory-efficient…

Conformal prediction provides prediction sets with finite-sample marginal coverage, but many applications require coverage guarantees that adapt to individual test points, a subpopulation, or a structural component of the data. Existing…

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public…

Overlap between two neural quantum states can be computed through Monte Carlo sampling by evaluating the unnormalized probability amplitudes on a subset of basis configurations. Due to the presence of probability amplitude ratios in the…

In the field of disparities research, there has been growing interest in developing a counterfactual-based decomposition analysis to identify underlying mediating mechanisms that help reduce disparities in populations. Despite rapid…

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Generalizing treatment effects from a randomized trial to a target population requires the assumption that potential outcome distributions are invariant across populations after conditioning on observed covariates. This assumption fails…