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We propose a general and scalable approximate sampling strategy for probabilistic models with discrete variables. Our approach uses gradients of the likelihood function with respect to its discrete inputs to propose updates in a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Will Grathwohl , Kevin Swersky , Milad Hashemi , David Duvenaud , Chris J. Maddison

We propose a novel class of dynamic shrinkage processes for Bayesian time series and regression analysis. Building upon a global-local framework of prior construction, in which continuous scale mixtures of Gaussian distributions are…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-02 Daniel R. Kowal , David S. Matteson , David Ruppert

Given n independent Bernoulli(p) random variables X_i, i = 1, ..., n, representing the opinions of individuals connected by an underlying random k-regular graph G_n on {1, ..., n}, we show that when conditioned on an atypical empirical…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-03 I-Hsun Chen , Ivan Lee , Kavita Ramanan , Sarath Yasodharan

We study the problem of posterior sampling in discrete-state spaces using discrete diffusion models. While posterior sampling methods for continuous diffusion models have achieved remarkable progress, analogous methods for discrete…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Wenda Chu , Zihui Wu , Yifan Chen , Yang Song , Yisong Yue

Discrete Markov random fields are undirected graphical models that capture complex conditional dependencies between discrete variables. Conducting exact posterior inference in these models is often computationally challenging because…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Giuseppe Arena , Maarten Marsman

Loss-based updating, including generalized Bayes, Gibbs, and quasi-posteriors, replaces likelihoods by a user-chosen loss and produces a posterior-like distribution via exponential tilt. We give a decision-theoretic characterization that…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Kenichiro McAlinn , Kōsaku Takanashi

Gibbs posteriors are proportional to a prior distribution multiplied by an exponentiated loss function, with a key tuning parameter weighting information in the loss relative to the prior and providing a control of posterior uncertainty.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Steven Winter , Omar Melikechi , David B. Dunson

Recently a new class of planar tessellations, named T-tessellations, was introduced. Splits, merges and a third local modification named flip where shown to be sufficient for exploring the space of T-tessellations. Based on these local…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-31 Kiên Kiêu , Katarzyna Adamczyk-Chauvat

This paper derives two new optimization-driven Monte Carlo algorithms inspired from variable splitting and data augmentation. In particular, the formulation of one of the proposed approaches is closely related to the alternating direction…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-27 Maxime Vono , Nicolas Dobigeon , Pierre Chainais

This work focuses on developing and motivating a stochastic version of a wellknown inverse problem methodology. Specifically, we consider the iteratively regularized Gauss-Newton method, originally proposed by Bakushinskii for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-09-20 El Houcine Bergou , Neil K. Chada , Youssef Diouane

Bayesian networks offer great potential for use in automating large scale diagnostic reasoning tasks. Gibbs sampling is the main technique used to perform diagnostic reasoning in large richly interconnected Bayesian networks. Unfortunately…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Mark Hulme

In this paper, we present the Bayesian inference procedures for the parameters of the multivariate random effects model derived under the assumption of an elliptically contoured distribution when the Berger and Bernardo reference and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-26 Olha Bodnar , Taras Bodnar

The synthetic control method is often applied to problems with one treated unit and a small number of control units. A common inferential task in this setting is to test null hypotheses regarding the average treatment effect on the treated.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-22 Lihua Lei , Timothy Sudijono

Bayesian inference for graphical models has received much attention in the literature in recent years. It is well known that when the graph G is decomposable, Bayesian inference is significantly more tractable than in the general…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-05 Kshitij Khare , Bala Rajaratnam , Abhishek Saha

This paper is concerned with the error analysis of two types of sampling algorithms, namely model predictive path integral (MPPI) and an interacting particle system (\IPS) algorithm, that have been proposed in the literature for numerical…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-04 Anant A. Joshi , Amirhossein Taghvaei , Prashant G. Mehta

The MC$^3$ (Madigan and York, 1995) and Gibbs (George and McCulloch, 1997) samplers are the most widely implemented algorithms for Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in linear regression models. These samplers draw a variable at random in each…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-26 Demetris Lamnisos , Jim E. Griffin , Mark F. J. Steel

We consider Gibbs distributions on permutations of a locally finite infinite set $X\subset\mathbb{R}$, where a permutation $\sigma$ of $X$ is assigned (formal) energy $\sum_{x\in X}V(\sigma(x)-x)$. This is motivated by Feynman's path…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-18 Marek Biskup , Thomas Richthammer

Selective classification is a powerful tool for automated decision-making in high-risk scenarios, allowing classifiers to act only when confident and abstain when uncertainty is high. Given a target accuracy, our goal is to minimize…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Mohamed Ndaoud , Peter Radchenko , Bradley Rava

This paper introduces a comprehensive framework to adjust a discrete test statistic for improving its hypothesis testing procedure. The adjustment minimizes the Wasserstein distance to a null-approximating continuous distribution, tackling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-13 Gonzalo Contador , Zheyang Wu

Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann