Related papers: Comment on "Safe Testing" by Gr\"unwald, de Heide,…
This is a writeup, with some elaboration, of the talks by the two authors (a physicist and a statistician) at the first PHYSTAT Informal review on January 24, 2024. We discuss Bayesian and frequentist approaches to dealing with nuisance…
Scientific theories can often be formulated using equality and order constraints on the relative effects in a linear regression model. For example, it may be expected that the effect of the first predictor is larger than the effect of the…
In 'Theoria motus corporum coelestium in sectionibus conicis solem ambientum' Gauss presents, as a theorem and with emphasis, the rule to update the ratio of probabilities of complementary hypotheses, in the light of an observed event which…
Equivalence tests, otherwise known as parity or similarity tests, are frequently used in ``bioequivalence studies" to establish practical equivalence rather than the usual statistical significant difference. In this article, we propose an…
In statistical practice, whether a Bayesian or frequentist approach is used in inference depends not only on the availability of prior information but also on the attitude taken toward partial prior information, with frequentists tending to…
Two procedures for checking Bayesian models are compared using a simple test problem based on the local Hubble expansion. Over four orders of magnitude, p-values derived from a global goodness-of-fit criterion for posterior probability…
Safety cases - clear, assessable arguments for the safety of a system in a given context - are a widely-used technique across various industries for showing a decision-maker (e.g. boards, customers, third parties) that a system is safe. In…
Traditional reliability analysis has been using time to event data, degradation data, and recurrent event data, while the associated covariates tend to be simple and constant over time. Over the past years, we have witnessed the rapid…
Machine learning techniques have been widely applied in Internet companies for various tasks, acting as an essential driving force, and feature engineering has been generally recognized as a crucial tache when constructing machine learning…
We revisit the family of goodness-of-fit tests for exponentiality based on the mean residual life time proposed by Baringhaus & Henze (2008). We motivate the test statistic by a characterisation of Shanbhag (1970) and provide an alternative…
We observed that safety arguments are prone to stay too abstract, e.g. solutions refer to large packages, argument strategies to complex reasoning steps, contexts and assumptions lack traceability. These issues can reduce the confidence we…
We consider the conditional randomization test as a way to account for covariate imbalance in randomized experiments. The test accounts for covariate imbalance by comparing the observed test statistic to the null distribution of the test…
Equivalence testing compares the hypothesis that an effect $\mu$ is large against the alternative that it is negligible. Here, `large' is classically expressed as being larger than some `equivalence margin' $\Delta$. A longstanding problem…
We propose and evaluate two methods that validate the computation of Bayes factors: one based on an improved variant of simulation-based calibration checking (SBC) and one based on calibration metrics for binary predictions. We show that in…
An author (arXiv:1709.09262 [quant-ph] (2017), Nanoscale Research Letters (2017) 12:552) has recently questioned the security of two-way quantum key distribution schemes by referring to attack strategies which leave no errors in the (raw)…
The assessment of in-service safety performance is an important task, not only in railways. For example it is important to identify deviations early, in particular possible deterioration of safety performance, so that corrective actions can…
Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) is a particular form of factor analysis, most commonly used in social research. In confirmatory factor analysis, the researcher first develops a hypothesis about what factors they believe are underlying…
In 1991, Z\'emor proposed a hash function which provides data security using the difficulty of writing a given matrix as a product of generator matrices. Tillich and Z\'emor subsequently provided an algorithm finding short collisions for…
In Bayesian semi-parametric analyses of time-to-event data, non-parametric process priors are adopted for the baseline hazard function or the cumulative baseline hazard function for a given finite partition of the time axis. However, it…
Studies to compare the survival of two or more groups using time-to-event data are of high importance in medical research. The gold standard is the log-rank test, which is optimal under proportional hazards. As the latter is no simple…