English
Related papers

Related papers: The inclusive Synthetic Control Method

200 papers

Synthetic control (SC) methods are commonly used to estimate the treatment effect on a single treated unit in panel data settings. An SC is a weighted average of control units built to match the treated unit, with weights typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xu Shi , Kendrick Li , Wang Miao , Mengtong Hu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Social scientists often study how a policy reform impacted a single targeted country. Increasingly, this is done with the synthetic control method (SCM). SCM models the country's counterfactual (non-reform or untreated) trajectory as a…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-15 Elias Tuomaala

Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Jonas Sievers , Mardavij Roozbehani

This paper provides new insights into the asymptotic properties of the synthetic control method (SCM). We show that the synthetic control (SC) weight converges to a limiting weight that minimizes the mean squared prediction risk of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-11-23 Xiaomeng Zhang , Wendun Wang , Xinyu Zhang

Synthetic control is a causal inference tool used to estimate the treatment effects of an intervention by creating synthetic counterfactual data. This approach combines measurements from other similar observations (i.e., donor pool ) to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-27 Saeyoung Rho , Rachel Cummings , Vishal Misra

Mixed-frequency data, where variables are observed at different temporal resolutions, commonly occur in economic and financial studies. Classical synthetic control methods (SCM) are ill-suited for such data, often necessitating aggregation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Lu Zhang , Shijin Gong , Xinyu Zhang

As an alternative to synthetic control, the distributional Synthetic Control (DSC) proposed by Gunsilius (2023) provides estimates for quantile treatment effect and thus enabling researchers to comprehensively understand the impact of…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-12 Lu Zhang , Xiaomeng Zhang , Xinyu Zhang

The method of synthetic controls is widely used for evaluating causal effects of policy changes in settings with observational data. Often, researchers aim to estimate the causal impact of policy interventions on a treated unit at an…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-17 Florian Gunsilius , David Van Dijcke

Synthetic Control Methods (SCMs) have become a fundamental tool for comparative case studies. The core idea behind SCMs is to estimate treatment effects by predicting counterfactual outcomes for a treated unit using a weighted combination…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-10 Masahiro Kato , Akari Ohda

The synthetic control method (SCM) has become a popular tool for estimating causal effects in policy evaluation, where a single treated unit is observed, and a heterogeneous set of untreated units with pre- and post-policy change data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-21 Jizhou Liu , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Carlos Varjão

This paper extends the literature on the theoretical properties of synthetic controls to the case of non-linear generative models, showing that the synthetic control estimator is generally biased in such settings. I derive a lower bound for…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-11-23 Oscar Engelbrektson

In this study, I propose a five-step algorithm for synthetic control method for comparative studies. My algorithm builds on the synthetic control model of Abadie et al., 2015 and the later model of Amjad et al., 2018. I apply all three…

General Economics · Economics 2021-10-27 Mani Bayani

We introduce a geodesic synthetic control method for causal inference that extends existing synthetic control methods to scenarios where outcomes are elements in a geodesic metric space rather than scalars. Examples of such outcomes include…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Daisuke Kurisu , Yidong Zhou , Taisuke Otsu , Hans-Georg Müller

When evaluating the impact of a policy on a metric of interest, it may not be possible to conduct a randomized control trial. In settings where only observational data is available, Synthetic Control (SC) methods provide a popular…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-24 Muhummad Amjad , Vishal Misra , Devavrat Shah , Dennis Shen

Synthetic control (SC) methods are widely used to estimate the effects of policy interventions, especially those targeting specific geographic regions, referred to as units. These methods construct a weighted combination of untreated units,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Esteban Fernández-Morales , Arman Oganisian , Youjin Lee

Since their introduction in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), Synthetic Control (SC) methods have quickly become one of the leading methods for estimating causal effects in observational studies in settings with panel data. Formal discussions…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-20 Lea Bottmer , Guido Imbens , Jann Spiess , Merrill Warnick

We propose a generalization of the synthetic control and interventions methods to the setting with dynamic treatment effects. We consider the estimation of unit-specific treatment effects from panel data collected under a general treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-03 Anish Agarwal , Sukjin Han , Dwaipayan Saha , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Haeyeon Yoon

This paper presents an automatic formal controller synthesis method for nonlinear sampled-data systems with safety and reachability specifications. Fundamentally, the presented method is not restricted to polynomial systems and controllers.…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-12-07 Cees F. Verdier , Manuel Mazo

In a seminal paper Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller [2010] (ADH), see also Abadie and Gardeazabal [2003], Abadie et al. [2014], develop the synthetic control procedure for estimating the effect of a treatment, in the presence of a single…

Applications · Statistics 2017-09-21 Nikolay Doudchenko , Guido W. Imbens

This paper reinterprets the Synthetic Control (SC) framework through the lens of weighting philosophy, arguing that the contrast between traditional SC and Difference-in-Differences (DID) reflects two distinct modeling mindsets: sparse…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-31 Le Wang , Xin Xing , Youhui Ye