Related papers: Short-term Classification of Strong Solar Energeti…
By coupling the EUropean Heliospheric FORcasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) and the improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model, two energetic storm particle (ESP) events, originating from the same active…
We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…
The capability to predict the parameters of an SEP event such as its onset, peak flux, and duration is critical to assessing any potential space weather impact. We present a new flexible modelling system simulating the propagation of Solar…
Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental…
Severe geomagnetic storms appear to be ordered by the solar cycle in a number of ways. They occur more frequently close to solar maximum and declining phase, are more common in larger solar cycles and show different patterns of occurrence…
Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural…
Multi-spacecraft observations of solar energetic particle (SEP) events not only enable a deeper understanding and development of particle acceleration and transport theories, but also provide important constraints for model validation…
Solar based electricity generations have experienced strong and impactful growth in recent years. The regulation, scheduling, dispatching, and unit commitment of intermittent solar power is dependent on the accuracy of the forecasting…
The Solar energetic particle analysis platform for the inner heliosphere (SERPENTINE) project presents it's new multi-spacecraft SEP event catalog for events observed in solar cycle 25. Observations from five different viewpoints are…
In this study, we employ the combined charged particle measurements from Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (\ISOIS) onboard the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) onboard the Solar Orbiter (SolO) to…
We develop a mixed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) regression model to predict the maximum solar flare intensity within a 24-hour time window 0$\sim$24, 6$\sim$30, 12$\sim$36 and 24$\sim$48 hours ahead of time using 6, 12, 24 and 48 hours of…
Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an important space radiation source, especially for the space weather environment in the inner heliosphere. The energy spectrum of SEP events is crucial both for evaluating their radiation effects and…
Machine learning for early syndrome diagnosis aims to solve the intricate task of predicting a ground truth label that most often is the outcome (effect) of a medical consensus definition applied to observed clinical measurements (causes),…
This study explores the behavior of machine learning-based flare forecasting models deployed in a simulated operational environment. Using Georgia State University's Space Weather Analytics for Solar Flares benchmark dataset (Angryk et al.…
High-precision pulsar timing is highly dependent on precise and accurate modeling of any effects that impact the data. It was shown that commonly used Solar Wind models do not accurately account for variability in the amplitude of the Solar…
Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) and radio bursts are indicators of particle acceleration on the Sun and in the heliosphere. The accelerated particles have energies significantly higher than thermal particles up to several orders of…
Short-term forecasting of solar photovoltaic energy (PV) production is important for powerplant management. Ideally these forecasts are equipped with error bars, so that downstream decisions can account for uncertainty. To produce…
Fluences of solar energetic particles (SEPs) are not easy to evaluate, especially for high-energy events (i.e. ground-level enhancements, GLEs). Earlier estimates of event-integrated SEP fluences for GLEs were based on partly outdated…
In this work, we examine the association between solar active regions and 152 solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar energetic particle (SEP) events over solar cycles 23-24 (1997-2017). The CDAW center's GOES data in the energy…
In this study we determine scaling relationships of observed solar flares that can be used to predict upper limits of the GOES-class magnitude of solar flares. The flare prediction scheme is based on the scaling of the slowly-varying…