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Measurement of uncertainty of predictions from machine learning methods is important across scientific domains and applications. We present, to our knowledge, the first such technique that quantifies the uncertainty of predictions from a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-04 Alex Hagen , Karl Pazdernik , Nicole LaHaye , Marjolein Oostrom

Explaining Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) has garnered significant attention due to the need for interpretability, enabling users to understand the behavior of these black-box models better and extract valuable insights from their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Jiaxing Zhang , Xiaoou Liu , Dongsheng Luo , Hua Wei

Techniques for understanding the functioning of complex machine learning models are becoming increasingly popular, not only to improve the validation process, but also to extract new insights about the data via exploratory analysis. Though…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-02 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Irene Kim , Rushil Anirudh , Peer-Timo Bremer

Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Aurora Grefsrud , Nello Blaser , Trygve Buanes

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Modelling uncertainty in Machine Learning models is essential for achieving safe and reliable predictions. Most research on uncertainty focuses on output uncertainty (predictions), but minimal attention is paid to uncertainty at inputs. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Marco Zullich

Explanation methods aim to make neural networks more trustworthy and interpretable. In this paper, we demonstrate a property of explanation methods which is disconcerting for both of these purposes. Namely, we show that explanations can be…

Explainability of black-box machine learning models is crucial, in particular when deployed in critical applications such as medicine or autonomous cars. Existing approaches produce explanations for the predictions of models, however, how…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-18 Jonas Schulz , Rafael Poyiadzi , Raul Santos-Rodriguez

The distribution of a neural network's latent representations has been successfully used to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) data. This work investigates whether this distribution moreover correlates with a model's epistemic uncertainty,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-24 Janis Postels , Hermann Blum , Yannick Strümpler , Cesar Cadena , Roland Siegwart , Luc Van Gool , Federico Tombari

Neural networks are powerful function approximators with tremendous potential in learning complex distributions. However, they are prone to overfitting on spurious patterns. Bayesian inference provides a principled way to regularize neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Yanzhe Bekkemoen , Helge Langseth

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been…

The lack of transparency of Deep Neural Networks continues to be a limitation that severely undermines their reliability and usage in high-stakes applications. Promising approaches to overcome such limitations are Prototype-Based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-21 Jon Vadillo , Roberto Santana , Jose A. Lozano , Marta Kwiatkowska

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a tool to estimate the uncertainty of a neural network by considering a distribution over weights and sampling different models for each input. In this paper, we propose a method for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Illia Oleksiienko , Dat Thanh Tran , Alexandros Iosifidis

Image reconstruction methods based on deep neural networks have shown outstanding performance, equalling or exceeding the state-of-the-art results of conventional approaches, but often do not provide uncertainty information about the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Riccardo Barbano , Željko Kereta , Chen Zhang , Andreas Hauptmann , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-03 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Nathan Fenner , Stefano Ermon

Data-driven methods based on machine learning have the potential to accelerate computational analysis of atomic structures. In this context, reliable uncertainty estimates are important for assessing confidence in predictions and enabling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-04 Jonas Busk , Peter Bjørn Jørgensen , Arghya Bhowmik , Mikkel N. Schmidt , Ole Winther , Tejs Vegge

Predictive uncertainty estimation remains a challenging problem precluding the use of deep neural networks as subsystems within safety-critical applications. Aleatoric uncertainty is a component of predictive uncertainty that cannot be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Angel Daruna , Yunye Gong , Abhinav Rajvanshi , Han-Pang Chiu , Yi Yao

Uncovering rationales behind predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs) has received increasing attention over recent years. Instance-level GNN explanation aims to discover critical input elements, like nodes or edges, that the target GNN…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Tianxiang Zhao , Dongsheng Luo , Xiang Zhang , Suhang Wang

Explaining how to get from A to B can be challenging. It requires mentally simulating what the listener will do based on what they are told. To capture this process, we propose a computational model that converts utterances into action…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Hanqi Zhou , Britt Besch , Charley M. Wu , Tobias Gerstenberg

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz