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Uncertainty Quantification through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be prohibitively expensive for target probability densities with expensive likelihood functions, for instance when the evaluation it involves solving a Partial…

Computation · Statistics 2020-12-11 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Grigorios Mingas , Robert Scheichl , Colin Fox , Tim J. Dodwell

We implement a Monte Carlo sampling strategy to extract helicity parton densities and their uncertainties from a reference set of longitudinally polarized scattering data, chosen to be that used in the DSSV14 global analysis. Instead of…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2019-12-25 Daniel de Florian , Gonzalo Agustin Lucero , Rodolfo Sassot , Marco Stratmann , Werner Vogelsang

In this work, we propose and compare several approaches to solve the Boltzmann equation with uncertain parameters, including multi-level Monte Carlo and multi-fidelity methods that employ an asymptotic-preserving-hybrid (APH) scheme (Filbet…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-07-29 Yiwen Lin , Liu Liu

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) has become an important methodology in applied mathematics for reducing the computational cost of weak approximations. For many problems, it is well-known that strong pairwise coupling of numerical solutions in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-11 Neil K. Chada , Håkon Hoel , Ajay Jasra , Georgios E. Zouraris

We present a diagrammatic Monte Carlo method for quantum impurity problems with general interactions and general hybridization functions. Our method uses a recursive determinant scheme to sample diagrams for the scattering amplitude. Unlike…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2020-08-13 Jia Li , Markus Wallerberger , Emanuel Gull

Inspired by the latest developments in multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods and randomised sketching for linear algebra problems we propose a MLMC estimator for real-time processing of matrix structured random data. Our algorithm is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-30 Yue Wu , Nick Polydorides

Stochastic spectral methods have become a popular technique to quantify the uncertainties of nano-scale devices and circuits. They are much more efficient than Monte Carlo for certain design cases with a small number of random parameters.…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2016-03-22 Zheng Zhang , Tsui-Wei Weng , Luca Daniel

Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander

We propose, analyze, and test a penalty projection-based efficient and accurate algorithm for the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) of the time-dependent Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flow problems in convection-dominated regimes. The algorithm…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-10-30 Muhammad Mohebujjaman , Julian Miranda , Md. Abdullah Al Mahbub , Mengying Xiao

We present a high-performance budgeted multi-level Monte Carlo method for estimates on the entire spatial domain of multi-PDE problems with random input data. The method is designed to operate optimally within memory and CPU-time…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-10 Niklas Baumgarten , Robert Kutri , Robert Scheichl

Uncertainty quantification approaches have been more critical in large language models (LLMs), particularly high-risk applications requiring reliable outputs. However, traditional methods for uncertainty quantification, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Ferhat Ozgur Catak , Murat Kuzlu

In this paper, we present a generalisation of the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to a setting where the level parameter is a continuous variable. This Continuous Level Monte Carlo (CLMC) estimator provides a natural framework in PDE…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-22 Gianluca Detommaso , Tim Dodwell , Rob Scheichl

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method is a useful numerical tool for pricing and hedging of complex financial derivatives. These problems are usually of high dimensionality and discontinuities. The two factors may significantly deteriorate the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-02-27 Zhijian He , Xiaoqun Wang

Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) is an iterative algorithm used to generate samples from a distribution that is known only up to a normalizing constant. The nonasymptotic dependence of its mixing time on the dimension and target accuracy is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-26 Niladri S. Chatterji , Jelena Diakonikolas , Michael I. Jordan , Peter L. Bartlett

We consider the numerical approximation of $\mathbb{P}[G\in \Omega]$ where the $d$-dimensional random variable $G$ cannot be sampled directly, but there is a hierarchy of increasingly accurate approximations $\{G_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-21 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Jonathan Spence , Aretha Teckentrup

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is an established approach for uncertainty quantification and propagation in scientific applications. A key challenge in applying MCMC to scientific domains is computation: the target density of interest is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-05 Diana Cai , Ryan P. Adams

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that generates proposals for a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm by simulating the dynamics of a Hamiltonian system. However, HMC is sensitive to large time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-15 Xiaoyu Lu , Valerio Perrone , Leonard Hasenclever , Yee Whye Teh , Sebastian J. Vollmer

In this paper, we present a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) version of the Stochastic Gradient (SG) method for optimization under uncertainty, in order to tackle Optimal Control Problems (OCP) where the constraints are described in the form…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-12-30 Matthieu Martin , Fabio Nobile , Panagiotis Tsilifis

We present an adaptive multilevel Monte Carlo (AMLMC) algorithm for approximating deterministic, real-valued, bounded linear functionals that depend on the solution of a linear elliptic PDE with a lognormal diffusivity coefficient and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-12-07 Joakim Beck , Yang Liu , Erik von Schwerin , Raúl Tempone

Inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks such as parameter estimation are computationally demanding whenever dealing with physics-based models, and typically require repeated evaluations of complex numerical solvers. When partial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Filippo Zacchei , Paolo Conti , Attilio Alberto Frangi , Andrea Manzoni