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Crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) has been an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) workhorse to study materials behaviors and structure-property relationships for the last few decades. These relations are…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-04 Anh Tran , Pieterjan Robbe , Theron Rodgers , Hojun Lim

We discuss the application of multilevel Monte Carlo methods to elliptic partial differential equations with random coefficients. Such problems arise, for example, in uncertainty quantification in subsurface flow modeling. We give a brief…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2012-06-08 A. L. Teckentrup

This work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-21 Sohail Reddy , Hillary Fairbanks

Estimating risk measures such as large loss probabilities and Value-at-Risk is fundamental in financial risk management and often relies on computationally intensive nested Monte Carlo methods. While Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC)…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-23 Alexandre Boumezoued , Adel Cherchali , Vincent Lemaire , Gilles Pagès , Mathieu Truc

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-23 Quentin Ayoul-Guilmard , Sundar Ganesh , Sebastian Krumscheid , Fabio Nobile

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

Monte Carlo techniques have been used to evaluate the statistical and systematic uncertainties in the helium abundances derived from extragalactic H~II regions. The helium abundance is sensitive to several physical parameters associated…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-20 Erik Aver , Keith A. Olive , Evan D. Skillman

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Andrew Millard , Zheng Zhao , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

This work introduces a novel multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) metamodeling approach for variance function estimation. Although devising an efficient experimental design for simulation metamodeling can be elusive, the MLMC-based approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-22 Jingtao Zhang , Xi Chen

In this paper we present a rigorous cost and error analysis of a multilevel estimator based on randomly shifted Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) lattice rules for lognormal diffusion problems. These problems are motivated by uncertainty…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-05 Frances Y. Kuo , Robert Scheichl , Christoph Schwab , Ian H. Sloan , Elisabeth Ullmann

Stochastic PDEs of Fluctuating Hydrodynamics are a powerful tool for the description of fluctuations in many-particle systems. In this paper, we develop and analyze a Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) scheme for the Dean--Kawasaki equation, a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-09 Federico Cornalba , Julian Fischer

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

We introduce a novel Multi-Order Monte Carlo approach for uncertainty quantification in the context of multiscale time-dependent partial differential equations. The new framework leverages Implicit-Explicit Runge-Kutta time integrators to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Giulia Bertaglia , Walter Boscheri , Lorenzo Pareschi

Efficient uncertainty quantification algorithms are key to understand the propagation of uncertainty -- from uncertain input parameters to uncertain output quantities -- in high resolution mathematical models of brain physiology. Advanced…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Matteo Croci , Vegard Vinje , Marie E. Rognes

Accurately and efficiently estimating system performance under uncertainty is paramount in power system planning and operation. Monte Carlo simulation is often used for this purpose, but convergence may be slow, especially when detailed…

Computation · Statistics 2020-10-23 Simon Tindemans , Goran Strbac

In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-10 Ahmed Kebaier , Jérôme Lelong

In this work, we present, analyze, and implement a class of Multi-Level Markov chain Monte Carlo (ML-MCMC) algorithms based on independent Metropolis-Hastings proposals for Bayesian inverse problems. In this context, the likelihood function…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-05-06 Juan Pablo Madrigal-Cianci , Fabio Nobile , Raul Tempone

Monte Carlo simulation is often used for the reliability assessment of power systems, but it converges slowly when the system is complex. Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) can be applied to speed up computation without compromises on model…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-12 Ensieh Sharifnia , Simon Tindemans

We develop a framework that allows the use of the multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) methodology (Giles2015) to calculate expectations with respect to the invariant measure of an ergodic SDE. In that context, we study the (over-damped) Langevin…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-08-13 Michael B. Giles , Mateusz B. Majka , Lukasz Szpruch , Sebastian Vollmer , Konstantinos Zygalakis

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has been used for a wide variety of stochastic applications. In this paper we consider its use in situations in which input random variables can be replaced by similar approximate random variables…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-04-08 Mike Giles , Oliver Sheridan-Methven