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It is well-known that the posterior density of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian likelihood is also Gaussian, hence completely described by its covariance and expectation. Sampling from a Gaussian posterior may be…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Daniela Calvetti , Erkki Somersalo

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-28 Sharmila Karumuri , Ilias Bilionis

We consider the problem of jointly estimating multiple related zero-mean Gaussian distributions from data. We propose to jointly estimate these covariance matrices using Laplacian regularized stratified model fitting, which includes loss…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-25 Jonathan Tuck , Stephen Boyd

Popular deterministic approximations of posterior distributions from, e.g. the Laplace method, variational Bayes and expectation-propagation, generally rely on symmetric approximating families, often taken to be Gaussian. This choice…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-19 Francesco Pozza , Daniele Durante , Botond Szabo

Gaussian graphical regressions have emerged as a powerful approach for regressing the precision matrix of a Gaussian graphical model on covariates, which, unlike traditional Gaussian graphical models, can help determine how graphs are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-17 Xuran Meng , Jingfei Zhang , Yi Li

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Simon Arridge , Kazufumi Ito , Bangti Jin , Chen Zhang

This paper is an overview of the classical level crossing problem which is studied extensively in the literature and is fundamental in many branches of applied probability. We discuss a number of approximations with an emphasis on their…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Vsevolod Malinovskii

We study the problem of quantifying how far an empirical distribution deviates from Gaussianity under the framework of optimal transport. By exploiting the cone geometry of the relative translation invariant quadratic Wasserstein space, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Binshuai Wang , Peng Wei

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-05 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

We present a Bayesian data fusion method to approximate a posterior distribution from an ensemble of particle estimates that only have access to subsets of the data. Our approach relies on approximate probabilistic inference of model…

Computation · Statistics 2020-10-28 Caleb Miller , Michael D. Schneider , Jem N. Corcoran , Jason Bernstein

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-14 Daniela Calvetti , Matthew M. Dunlop , Erkki Somersalo , Andrew M. Stuart

In this work we propose and analyze a Hessian-based adaptive sparse quadrature to compute infinite-dimensional integrals with respect to the posterior distribution in the context of Bayesian inverse problems with Gaussian prior. Due to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Peng Chen , Umberto Villa , Omar Ghattas

We consider the problem of learning a Gaussian variational approximation to the posterior distribution for a high-dimensional parameter, where we impose sparsity in the precision matrix to reflect appropriate conditional independence…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-23 Linda S. L. Tan , David J. Nott

A major challenge in state estimation with model-based observers are low-quality models that lack of relevant dynamics. We address this issue by simultaneously estimating the system's states and its model uncertainties by a square root UKF.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-22 Ricarda-Samantha Götte , Julia Timmermann

Variational inference (VI) is a popular approach in Bayesian inference, that looks for the best approximation of the posterior distribution within a parametric family, minimizing a loss that is typically the (reverse) Kullback-Leibler (KL)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-18 Marguerite Petit-Talamon , Marc Lambert , Anna Korba

Many problems in navigation and tracking require increasingly accurate characterizations of the evolution of uncertainty in nonlinear systems. Nonlinear uncertainty propagation approaches based on Gaussian mixture density approximations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-30 Jackson Kulik , Keith A. LeGrand

The Bayesian inference is widely used in many scientific and engineering problems, especially in the linear inverse problems in infinite-dimensional setting where the unknowns are functions. In such problems, choosing an appropriate prior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-13 Zejun Sun , Guang-Hui Zheng

We define a novel class of additive models, called Extended Latent Gaussian Models, that allow for a wide range of response distributions and flexible relationships between the additive predictor and mean response. The new class covers a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-13 Alex Stringer , Patrick Brown , Jamie Stafford

We develop Bayesian predictive stacking for geostatistical models, where the primary inferential objective is to provide inference on the latent spatial random field and conduct spatial predictions at arbitrary locations. We exploit…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Lu Zhang , Wenpin Tang , Sudipto Banerjee

Optimal Transport is a useful metric to compare probability distributions and to compute a pairing given a ground cost. Its entropic regularization variant (eOT) is crucial to have fast algorithms and reflect fuzzy/noisy matchings. This…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Francisco Andrade , Gabriel Peyre , Clarice Poon