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In this paper we present a discussion of the basic aspects of the well-known problem of prediction and inference in physics, with specific attention to the role of models, the use of data and the application of recent developments in…
One of the most popular training algorithms for deep neural networks is the Adaptive Moment Estimation (Adam) introduced by Kingma and Ba. Despite its success in many applications there is no satisfactory convergence analysis: only local…
The era of information explosion had prompted the accumulation of a tremendous amount of time-series data, including stationary and non-stationary time-series data. State-of-the-art algorithms have achieved a decent performance in dealing…
This paper proposes a physics-guided machine learning approach that combines advanced machine learning models and physics-based models to improve the prediction of water flow and temperature in river networks. We first build a recurrent…
We introduce a new algorithm for computing the periods of a smooth complex projective hypersurface. The algorithm intertwine with a new method for computing an explicit basis of the singular homology of the hypersurface. It is based on…
We study Feynman integrals in the representation with Schwinger parameters and derive recursive integral formulas for massless 3- and 4-point functions. Properties of analytic (including dimensional) regularization are summarized and we…
A bootstrap procedure for constructing prediction bands for a stationary functional time series is proposed. The procedure exploits a general vector autoregressive representation of the time-reversed series of Fourier coefficients appearing…
This paper presents a novel boundary-optimized fast Fourier extension algorithm for efficient approximation of non-periodic functions. The proposed methodology constructs periodic extensions through strategic utilization of boundary…
We study the fixed design segmented regression problem: Given noisy samples from a piecewise linear function $f$, we want to recover $f$ up to a desired accuracy in mean-squared error. Previous rigorous approaches for this problem rely on…
Although conventional machine learning algorithms have been widely adopted for stock-price predictions in recent years, the massive volume of specific labeled data required are not always available. In contrast, meta-learning technology…
Feedback-based quantum algorithms (FQAs) operate by iteratively growing a quantum circuit to optimize a given task. At each step, feedback from qubit measurements is used to inform the next quantum circuit update. In practice, the sampling…
Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use…
We propose an improved algorithm for counting the number of Hamiltonian cycles in a directed graph. The basic idea of the method is sequential acceptance/rejection, which is successfully used in approximating the number of perfect matchings…
Methods for neural network hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling are computationally expensive due to the need to train a large number of model configurations. In this paper, we show that standard frequentist regression models can…
Forecasting in probabilistic time series is a complex endeavor that extends beyond predicting future values to also quantifying the uncertainty inherent in these predictions. Gaussian process regression stands out as a Bayesian machine…
Classifying the state of the atmosphere into a finite number of large-scale circulation regimes is a popular way of investigating teleconnections, the predictability of severe weather events, and climate change. Here, we investigate a…
In this paper, we model the trajectory of sea vessels and provide a service that predicts in near-real time the position of any given vessel in 4', 10', 20' and 40' time intervals. We explore the necessary tradeoffs between accuracy,…
We introduce new methods for phylogenetic tree quartet construction by using machine learning to optimize the power of phylogenetic invariants. Phylogenetic invariants are polynomials in the joint probabilities which vanish under a model of…
The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families and are particularly simple starting…
We study causal effect estimation under interference from network data. We work under the chain-graph formulation pioneered in Tchetgen Tchetgen et. al (2021). Our first result shows that polynomial time evaluation of treatment effects is…