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We use "glide charts" (plots of sequences of root mean squared forecast errors as the target date is approached) to evaluate and compare fixed-target forecasts of Arctic sea ice. We first use them to evaluate the simple feature-engineered…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-12 Francis X. Diebold , Maximilian Goebel , Philippe Goulet Coulombe

We present a memetic algorithm (\maa) approach for finding a Hamiltonian cycle in a Hamiltonian graph. The \ma is based on a proven approach to the Asymmetric Travelling Salesman Problem (\atspp) that, in this contribution, is boosted by…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sarwan Ali , Pablo Moscato

An approach is presented for making predictions about functional time series. The method is applied to data coming from periodically correlated processes and electricity demand, obtaining accurate point forecasts and narrow prediction bands…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-29 Antonio Elías , Raúl Jiménez

We consider a model of selective prediction, where the prediction algorithm is given a data sequence in an online fashion and asked to predict a pre-specified statistic of the upcoming data points. The algorithm is allowed to choose when to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-30 Mingda Qiao , Gregory Valiant

We begin the study of list-decodable linear regression using batches. In this setting only an $\alpha \in (0,1]$ fraction of the batches are genuine. Each genuine batch contains $\ge n$ i.i.d. samples from a common unknown distribution and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-24 Abhimanyu Das , Ayush Jain , Weihao Kong , Rajat Sen

This paper presents the development of a new class of algorithms that accurately implement the preferential attachment mechanism of the Barab\'asi-Albert (BA) model to generate scale-free graphs. Contrary to existing approximate…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Giorgos Stamatelatos , Pavlos S. Efraimidis

This paper presents a computationally feasible method to compute rigorous bounds on the interval-generalisation of regression analysis to account for epistemic uncertainty in the output variables. The new iterative method uses machine…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-02-22 Krasymyr Tretiak , Georg Schollmeyer , Scott Ferson

In this paper we tackle the problem of fast rates in time series forecasting from a statistical learning perspective. In a serie of papers (e.g. Meir 2000, Modha and Masry 1998, Alquier and Wintenberger 2012) it is shown that the main tools…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-22 Pierre Alquier , Olivier Wintenberger

The semi-random graph process is an adaptive random graph process in which an online algorithm is initially presented an empty graph on $n$ vertices. In each round, a vertex $u$ is presented to the algorithm independently and uniformly at…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2024-12-24 Alan Frieze , Pu Gao , Calum MacRury , Paweł Prałat , Gregory Sorkin

Functional data analysis, which models data as realizations of random functions over a continuum, has emerged as a useful tool for time series data. Often, the goal is to infer the dynamic connections (or time-varying conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-10 Chunshan Liu , Daniel R. Kowal , James Doss-Gollin , Marina Vannucci

In modelling complex processes, the potential past data that influence future expectations are immense. Models that track all this data are not only computationally wasteful but also shed little light on what past data most influence the…

We present a simple and faster algorithm for computing fair cuts on undirected graphs, a concept introduced in recent work of Li et al. (SODA 2023). Informally, for any parameter $\epsilon>0$, a $(1+\epsilon)$-fair $(s,t)$-cut is an…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Jason Li , Owen Li

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-28 Gabriel Spadon , Shenda Hong , Bruno Brandoli , Stan Matwin , Jose F. Rodrigues-Jr , Jimeng Sun

Many real world problems exhibit patterns that have periodic behavior. For example, in astrophysics, periodic variable stars play a pivotal role in understanding our universe. An important step when analyzing data from such processes is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-08-20 Yuyang Wang , Roni Khardon , Pavlos Protopapas

Hyperbolicity measures, in terms of (distance) metrics, how close a given graph is to being a tree. Due to its relevance in modeling real-world networks, hyperbolicity has seen intensive research over the last years. Unfortunately, the best…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2017-02-22 Till Fluschnik , Christian Komusiewicz , George B. Mertzios , André Nichterlein , Rolf Niedermeier , Nimrod Talmon

We present data-dependent learning bounds for the general scenario of non-stationary non-mixing stochastic processes. Our learning guarantees are expressed in terms of a data-dependent measure of sequential complexity and a discrepancy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-16 Vitaly Kuznetsov , Mehryar Mohri

The theory of graphical functions is generalized from scalar theories to theories with spin, leading to a numerator structure in Feynman integrals. The main part of this article treats the case of positive integer spin, which is obtained…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2025-05-12 Oliver Schnetz

We present an improved algorithm for computing the $4$-edge-connected components of an undirected graph in linear time. The new algorithm uses only elementary data structures, and it is simple to describe and to implement in the pointer…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-08-20 Loukas Georgiadis , Giuseppe F. Italiano , Evangelos Kosinas

We consider a linear regression model with regression parameter beta =(beta_1, ..., beta_p) and independent and identically N(0, sigma^2)distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is theta = a^T beta where a is a specified…

Computation · Statistics 2009-04-17 Paul Kabaila , Khageswor Giri

The emergence of classical behavior from quantum mechanics as Planck's constant $\hbar$ approaches zero remains a fundamental challenge in physics [1-3]. This paper introduces a novel approach employing deep neural networks to directly…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-24 Kamran Majid