Related papers: Discounted Subjective Expected Utility in Continuo…
We revisit the role of instrumental value as a driver of adaptive behavior. In active inference, instrumental or extrinsic value is quantified by the information-theoretic surprisal of a set of observations measuring the extent to which…
State-of-the-art multi-objective optimization often assumes a known utility function, learns it interactively, or computes the full Pareto front-each requiring costly expert input.~Real-world problems, however, involve implicit preferences…
Shafer's theory of belief and the Bayesian theory of probability are two alternative and mutually inconsistent approaches toward modelling uncertainty in artificial intelligence. To help reduce the conflict between these two approaches,…
We study a \emph{financial} version of the classic online problem of scheduling weighted packets with deadlines. The main novelty is that, while previous works assume packets have \emph{fixed} weights throughout their lifetime, this work…
The concept of time mostly plays a subordinate role in finance and economics. The assumption is that time flows continuously and that time series data should be analyzed at regular, equidistant intervals. Nonetheless, already nearly 60…
Although many investigators affirm a desire to build reasoning systems that behave consistently with the axiomatic basis defined by probability theory and utility theory, limited resources for engineering and computation can make a complete…
In this paper an approach to automated deduction under uncertainty,based on possibilistic logic, is proposed ; for that purpose we deal with clauses weighted by a degree which is a lower bound of a necessity or a possibility measure,…
In this paper we consider the statistical inference of the unknown parameter of an exponential distribution based on the time truncated data. The time truncated data occurs quite often in the reliability analysis for type-I or hybrid…
This paper relates both to the metaphysics of probability and to the physics of time asymmetry. Using the formalism of decoherent histories, it investigates whether intuitions about intrinsic time directedness that are often associated with…
In this work we present an epistemic analysis of time phenomenon using the mathematical machinery of information theory and modular theory. By adopting limited commitment to the ontology of time evolution, and instead by mainly relying on…
We demonstrate that temporal observables, which are sensitive to a system's history (as opposed to its state), implicate entangled histories. We exemplify protocols for measuring such observables, and algorithms for predicting the…
Representing token embeddings as probability distributions over learned manifolds allows for more flexible contextual inference, reducing representational rigidity while enhancing semantic granularity. Comparative evaluations demonstrate…
Suspense is a crucial ingredient of narrative fiction, engaging readers and making stories compelling. While there is a vast theoretical literature on suspense, it is computationally not well understood. We compare two ways for modelling…
In simple -- but selected -- quantum systems, the probability distribution determined by the ground state wave function is infinitely divisible. Like all simple quantum systems, the Euclidean temporal extension leads to a system that…
In stochastic decision problems, one often wants to estimate the underlying probability measure statistically, and then to use this estimate as a basis for decisions. We shall consider how the uncertainty in this estimation can be…
The focus of the current work concerned the psychological processes that underlie prediction of an events duration. The objective was to push forward existing psychological theory on event duration prediction, something made possible by the…
Since Leonard Savage's epoch-making "Foundations of Statistics", Subjective Expected Utility Theory has been the presumptive model for decision-making. Savage provided an act-based axiomatization of standard expected utility theory. In this…
It is a commonplace perception that speed of time subjectively experienced by humans significantly differs from chronological (objective) time and shows a great deal of variability. An often cited example is the phenomenon of the time…
We exploit qualitative probabilistic relationships among variables for computing bounds of conditional probability distributions of interest in Bayesian networks. Using the signs of qualitative relationships, we can implement abstraction…
We give a probabilistic analysis of inductive knowledge and belief and explore its predictions concerning knowledge about the future, about laws of nature, and about the values of inexactly measured quantities. The analysis combines a…