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In this work, we propose \texttt{TimeGrad}, an autoregressive model for multivariate probabilistic time series forecasting which samples from the data distribution at each time step by estimating its gradient. To this end, we use diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-09 Kashif Rasul , Calvin Seward , Ingmar Schuster , Roland Vollgraf

Multilevel compositional data, such as data sampled over time that are non-negative and sum to a constant value, are common in various fields. However, there is currently no software specifically built to model compositional data in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Flora Le , Dorothea Dumuid , Tyman E. Stanford , Joshua F. Wiley

The problem of modeling the relationship between univariate distributions and one or more explanatory variables has found increasing interest. Traditional functional data methods cannot be applied directly to distributional data because of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Yidong Zhou , Hans-Georg Müller

For uncertainty propagation of highly complex and/or nonlinear problems, one must resort to sample-based non-intrusive approaches [1]. In such cases, minimizing the number of function evaluations required to evaluate the response surface is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-12-04 Anindya Bhaduri , Lori Graham-Brady

A regression method for proportional, or fractional, data with mixed effects is outlined, designed for analysis of datasets in which the outcomes have substantial weight at the bounds. In such cases a normal approximation is particularly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-23 Colman Humphrey , Dan Swingley

Additive regression models are actively researched in the statistical field because of their usefulness in the analysis of responses determined by non-linear relationships with multivariate predictors. In this kind of statistical models,…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-14 German A. Schnaidt Grez , Brani Vidakovic

Density regression characterizes the conditional density of the response variable given the covariates, and provides much more information than the commonly used conditional mean or quantile regression. However, it is often computationally…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-15 Yunlu Chen , Nan Zhang

Symbolic regression (SR) aims to discover explicit mathematical expressions that explain observed data and is widely used in domains where interpretability is essential. Because interpretability requires expressions to reflect meaningful…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Koki Ikeda , Masahiro Nomura , Ryoki Hamano

Pavement distress significantly compromises road integrity and poses risks to drivers. Accurate prediction of pavement distress deterioration is essential for effective road management, cost reduction in maintenance, and improvement of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Shilin Tong , Difei Wu , Xiaona Liu , Le Zheng , Yuchuan Du , Difan Zou

Although fully generative models have been successfully used to model the contents of text documents, they are often awkward to apply to combinations of text data and document metadata. In this paper we propose a Dirichlet-multinomial…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2012-06-18 David Mimno , Andrew McCallum

Distribution Regression (DR) on stochastic processes describes the learning task of regression on collections of time series. Path signatures, a technique prevalent in stochastic analysis, have been used to solve the DR problem. Recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Andrew Alden , Carmine Ventre , Blanka Horvath

Spatial dependent data frequently occur in many fields such as spatial econometrics and epidemiology. To deal with the dependence of variables and estimate quantile-specific effects by covariates, spatial quantile autoregressive models…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-16 Ping Dong , Jiawei Hou , Yunquan Song

The predominant knowledge-based approach to automated model construction, compositional modelling, employs a set of models of particular functional components. Its inference mechanism takes a scenario describing the constituent interacting…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-07-04 J. Keppens , Q. Shen

Supervisory signals can help topic models discover low-dimensional data representations that are more interpretable for clinical tasks. We propose a framework for training supervised latent Dirichlet allocation that balances two goals:…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-12-05 Michael C. Hughes , Gabriel Hope , Leah Weiner , Thomas H. McCoy , Roy H. Perlis , Erik B. Sudderth , Finale Doshi-Velez

We consider spatially dependent functional data collected under a geostatistics setting, where locations are sampled from a spatial point process. The functional response is the sum of a spatially dependent functional effect and a spatially…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-18 Haozhe Zhang , Yehua Li

In this work, we employ autoregressive models developed in financial engineering for modeling of forest dynamics. Autoregressive models have some theoretical advantage over currently employed forest modeling approaches such as Markov chains…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-11-22 Olga Rumyantseva , Andrey Sarantsev , Nikolay Strigul

Missingness in categorical data is a common problem in various real applications. Traditional approaches either utilize only the complete observations or impute the missing data by some ad hoc methods rather than the true conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-12 Chaojie Wang , Linghao Shen , Han Li , Xiaodan Fan

In this work, we explore the theoretical properties of conditional deep generative models under the statistical framework of distribution regression where the response variable lies in a high-dimensional ambient space but concentrates…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Shivam Kumar , Yun Yang , Lizhen Lin

Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Jonathan Schmidt , Luca Schmidt , Felix Strnad , Nicole Ludwig , Philipp Hennig

Recent disentangled representation learning (DRL) methods heavily rely on factor specific strategies-either learning objectives for attributes or model architectures for objects-to embed inductive biases. Such divergent approaches result in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Whie Jung , Dong Hoon Lee , Seunghoon Hong