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Due to concerns about parametric model misspecification, there is interest in using machine learning to adjust for confounding when evaluating the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. Unfortunately, exposure effect estimators that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Oliver Dukes , Stijn Vansteelandt , David Whitney

This work presents a set of optimal machine learning (ML) models to represent the temporal degradation suffered by the power conversion efficiency (PCE) of polymeric organic solar cells (OSCs) with a multilayer structure…

Renewable Energies (RES) penetration is progressing rapidly: in France, the installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) power rose from 26MW in 2007 to 8GW in 2017 [1]. Power generated by PV plants being highly dependent on variable weather…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-15 Kevin Bellinguer , Robin Girard , Guillaume Bontron , Georges Kariniotakis

The integration of solar power has been increasing as the green energy transition rolls out. The penetration of solar power challenges the grid stability and energy scheduling, due to its intermittent energy generation. Accurate and near…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Jinbao Wang , Jun Liu , Shiliang Zhang , Xuehui Ma

In this paper, we address the issue of short-term wind speed prediction at a given site. We show that, when one uses spatiotemporal information as provided by wind data of neighboring stations, one significantly improves the prediction…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-10-07 Rachel Baïle , Jean-François Muzy

Short-term forecasting models typically assume the availability of input data (features) when they are deployed and in use. However, equipment failures, disruptions, cyberattacks, may lead to missing features when such models are used…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-30 Akylas Stratigakos , Panagiotis Andrianesis

Solar contamination, due to moonlight and atmospheric scattering of sunlight, can cause systematic errors in stellar radial velocity (RV) measurements that significantly detract from the ~10cm/s sensitivity required for the detection and…

Accurate, reliable solar flare prediction is crucial for mitigating potential disruptions to critical infrastructure, while predicting solar flares remains a significant challenge. Existing methods based on heuristic physical features often…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Shunya Nagashima , Komei Sugiura

Despite the progress within the last decades, weather forecasting is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Current satellite-based approaches to predict thunderstorms are usually based on the analysis of the observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-04 Christian Schön , Jens Dittrich , Richard Müller

Solar irradiance models that assume solar irradiance variations to be due to changes in the solar surface magnetic flux have been successfully used to reconstruct total solar irradiance on rotational as well as cyclical and secular time…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-03 Yvonne C. Unruh , Will T. Ball , Natalie A. Krivova

The total solar irradiance (TSI) varies on timescales of minute to centuries. On short timescales it varies due to the superposition of intensity fluctuations produced by turbulent convection and acoustic oscillations. On longer scale…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-10-12 V. Penza , F. Berrilli , L. Bertello , M. Cantoresi , S. Criscuoli , P. Giobbi

The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Sakshi Mishra , Praveen Palanisamy

We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-06-23 Paul J. Bushby , Steven M. Tobias

Photovoltaic (PV) power is affected by weather conditions, making the power generated from the PV systems uncertain. Solving this problem would help improve the reliability and cost effectiveness of the grid, and could help reduce reliance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-07 Yahya Al Lawati , Jack Kelly , Dan Stowell

Missing values are common in photovoltaic (PV) power data, yet the uncertainty they induce is not propagated into predictive distributions. We develop a framework that incorporates missing-data uncertainty into short-term PV forecasting by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Parastoo Pashmchi , Jérôme Benoit , Motonobu Kanagawa

Air pollution poses a significant threat to public health and well-being, particularly in urban areas. This study introduces a series of machine-learning models that integrate data from the Sentinel-5P satellite, meteorological conditions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Giacomo Blanco , Luca Barco , Lorenzo Innocenti , Claudio Rossi

The topology and dynamics of the solar chromosphere are greatly affected by the presence of magnetic fields. The magnetic field can be inferred by analyzing polarimetric observations of spectral lines. Polarimetric signals induced by…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-11 C. J. Díaz Baso , J. de la Cruz Rodríguez , S. Danilovic

This paper describes a new way to predict real time series using complex-valued elements. An example is given in the case of the short-term probabilistic global solar irradiance forecasts with measurement as real part and an estimate of the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-02-24 Cyril Voyant , Philippe Lauret , Gilles Notton , Jean-Laurent Duchaud , Luis Garcia-Gutierrez , Ghjuvan Antone Faggianelli

The paper presents a Gaussian/kernel process regression method for real-time state estimation and forecasting of phase angle and angular speed in systems with a high penetration of solar generation units, operating under a sparse…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-20 Mohammad Ensaf , Masoud Barati

Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting, where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradiance to solar power…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-10 Nina Horat , Sina Klerings , Sebastian Lerch