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Accurate forecasting of Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) outbreaks within wild bird populations necessitates models that account for complex, multi-scale transmission patterns driven by diverse factors. While conventional spatiotemporal epidemic…
Graph-structured data and their related algorithms have attracted significant attention in many fields, such as influenza prediction in public health. However, the variable influenza seasonality, occasional pandemics, and domain knowledge…
Understanding age-group dynamics of infectious diseases is a fundamental issue for both scientific study and policymaking. Age-structure epidemic models were developed in order to study and improve our understanding of these dynamics. By…
Antigenic escape constitutes the main mechanism allowing rapidly evolving viruses to achieve endemicity. Beyond granting immune escape, empirical evidence also suggests that mutations of viruses might increase their inter-host…
In light of the continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines, we create a simulation framework for exploring possible infection trajectories under various scenarios. The situations of primary interest involve the interaction…
A model describing the dynamics related to the spreading of non-lethal infectious diseases in a fixed-size population is proposed. The model consists of a non-linear delay-differential equation describing the time evolution of the increment…
Forecasting infectious disease incidence can provide important information to guide public health planning, yet is difficult because epidemic dynamics are complex. Current mechanistic and statistical approaches often struggle to capture…
Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and…
This study presents a novel approach at the intersection of genomic analysis and artificial intelligence (AI) to predict viral mutations and assess the risks of future pandemics. Through comprehensive genomic analysis, genetic markers…
Public health surveillance systems often fail to detect emerging infectious diseases, particularly in resource limited settings. By integrating relevant clinical and internet-source data, we can close critical gaps in coverage and…
SARS-CoV-2, like any other virus, continues to mutate as it spreads, according to an evolutionary process. Unlike any other virus, the number of currently available sequences of SARS-CoV-2 in public databases such as GISAID is already…
In this article, we focus on the analysis of the potential factors driving the spread of influenza, and possible policies to mitigate the adverse effects of the disease. To be precise, we first invoke discrete Fourier transform (DFT) to…
Accurate epidemic forecasting is critical for informing public health decisions and timely interventions. While Physics-Informed Neural Networks have shown promise in various scientific domains, their potential application to real-time…
We develop a spatially dependent generalisation to the Wells-Riley model and its extensions applied to COVID-19, that determines the infection risk due to airborne transmission of viruses. We assume that the concentration of infectious…
Genomic surveillance of infectious diseases allows monitoring circulating and emerging variants and quantifying their epidemic potential. However, due to the high costs associated with genomic sequencing, only a limited number of samples…
Susceptibility governs the dynamics of contagion. The classical SIR model is one of the simplest compartmental models of contagion spread, assuming a single shared susceptibility level. However, variation in susceptibility over a population…
An interesting inference drawn by some Covid-19 epidemiological models is that there exists a proportion of the population who are not susceptible to infection -- even at the start of the current pandemic. This paper introduces a model of…
Chronic viral infections can persist in an infected person for decades. From the perspective of the virus, a single infection can span thousands of generations, leading to a highly diverse population of viruses with its own complex…
Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused an ongoing pandemic infecting 219 million people as of 10/19/21, with a 3.6% mortality rate. Natural selection can generate favorable mutations with improved fitness…