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Hidden semi-Markov models generalise hidden Markov models by explicitly modelling the time spent in a given state, the so-called dwell time, using some distribution defined on the natural numbers. While the (shifted) Poisson and negative…
When learning a hidden Markov model (HMM), sequen- tial observations can often be complemented by real-valued summary response variables generated from the path of hid- den states. Such settings arise in numerous domains, includ- ing many…
Factorial hidden Markov models (FHMMs) are powerful tools of modeling sequential data. Learning FHMMs yields a challenging simultaneous model selection issue, i.e., selecting the number of multiple Markov chains and the dimensionality of…
This study introduces an integrated framework for predictive causal inference designed to overcome limitations inherent in conventional single model approaches. Specifically, we combine a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for spatial health state…
Player modeling is an important concept that has gained much attention in game research due to its utility in developing adaptive techniques to target better designs for engagement and retention. Previous work has explored modeling…
We propose the segmented iHMM (siHMM), a hierarchical infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) that supports a simple, efficient inference scheme. The siHMM is well suited to segmentation problems, where the goal is to identify points at which a…
In this paper, we consider the filtering and smoothing recursions in nonparametric finite state space hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the parameters of the model are unknown and replaced by estimators. We provide an explicit and time…
Stochastic volatility models are the backbone of financial engineering. We study both continuous time diffusions as well as discrete time models. We propose two novel approaches to estimating stochastic volatility diffusions, one using…
A crucial challenge for solving problems in conflict research is in leveraging the semi-supervised nature of the data that arise. Observed response data such as counts of battle deaths over time indicate latent processes of interest such as…
We study the frontier between learnable and unlearnable hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are flexible tools for clustering dependent data coming from unknown populations. The model parameters are known to be fully identifiable (up to…
We demonstrate the application of pattern recognition algorithms via hidden Markov models (HMM) for qubit readout. This scheme provides a state-path trajectory approach capable of detecting qubit state transitions and makes for a robust…
A nonhomogeneous hidden semi-Markov model is proposed to segment toroidal time series according to a finite number of latent regimes and, simultaneously, estimate the influence of time-varying covariates on the process' survival under each…
Hidden Markov Models (HMM) model a sequence of observations that are dependent on a hidden (or latent) state that follow a Markov chain. These models are widely used in diverse fields including ecology, speech recognition, and…
We test the robustness of a maximum-likelihood (ML) based classifier where sequential data as observation is corrupted by noise. The hypothesis is that a generative model, that combines the state transitions of a hidden Markov model (HMM)…
Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of…
In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem on-line plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are ubiquitous in time-series modelling, with applications ranging from chemical reaction modelling to speech recognition. These HMMs are often large, with high-dimensional memories. A recently-proposed…
Hidden Markov models are versatile tools for modeling sequential observations, where it is assumed that a hidden state process selects which of finitely many distributions generates any given observation. Specifically for time series of…
Active learning seeks to reduce the amount of data required to fit the parameters of a model, thus forming an important class of techniques in modern machine learning. However, past work on active learning has largely overlooked latent…
Variational inference algorithms have proven successful for Bayesian analysis in large data settings, with recent advances using stochastic variational inference (SVI). However, such methods have largely been studied in independent or…