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The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-09 Aki Vehtari , Tommi Mononen , Ville Tolvanen , Tuomas Sivula , Ole Winther

Generalized linear models (GLMs) -- such as logistic regression, Poisson regression, and robust regression -- provide interpretable models for diverse data types. Probabilistic approaches, particularly Bayesian ones, allow coherent…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-19 Jonathan H. Huggins , Ryan P. Adams , Tamara Broderick

In multi-task Bayesian optimization, the goal is to leverage experience from optimizing existing tasks to improve the efficiency of optimizing new ones. While approaches using multi-task Gaussian processes or deep kernel transfer exist, the…

For developing innovative systems architectures, modeling and optimization techniques have been central to frame the architecting process and define the optimization and modeling problems. In this context, for system-of-systems the use of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Paul Saves , Jasper Bussemaker , Rémi Lafage , Thierry Lefebvre , Nathalie Bartoli , Youssef Diouane , Joseph Morlier

Bayesian optimization (BO) is widely adopted in black-box optimization problems and it relies on a surrogate model to approximate the black-box response function. With the increasing number of black-box optimization tasks solved and even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-10 Wenlong Lyu , Shoubo Hu , Jie Chuai , Zhitang Chen

Bayesian optimisation (BO) uses probabilistic surrogate models - usually Gaussian processes (GPs) - for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. At each BO iteration, the GP hyperparameters are fit to previously-evaluated data by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-04 George De Ath , Richard Everson , Jonathan Fieldsend

Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithms form a class of surrogate-based heuristics, aimed at efficiently computing high-quality solutions for numerical black-box optimization problems. The BO pipeline is highly modular, with different design…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-18 Carolin Benjamins , Anja Jankovic , Elena Raponi , Koen van der Blom , Marius Lindauer , Carola Doerr

Penalized B-splines are routinely used in additive models to describe smooth changes in a response with quantitative covariates. It is typically done through the conditional mean in the exponential family using generalized additive models…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-12 Philippe Lambert

Laplace approximation is a very useful tool in Bayesian inference and it claims a nearly Gaussian behavior of the posterior. \cite{SpLaplace2022} established some rather accurate finite sample results about the quality of Laplace…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Vladimir Spokoiny

Multi-objective optimization aims to solve problems with competing objectives. Evaluating such problems is often slow or expensive, limiting the budget of evaluations. In many applications, historical data from related optimization tasks is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Leonard Papenmeier , Petru Tighineanu

A critical bottleneck for scientific progress is the costly nature of computer simulations for complex systems. Surrogate models provide an appealing solution: such models are trained on simulator evaluations, then used to emulate and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-14 Xinming Wang , Simon Mak , John Miller , Jianguo Wu

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Shion Takeno , Masahiro Nomura , Masayuki Karasuyama

We develop an efficient Bayesian sequential inference framework for factor analysis models observed via various data types, such as continuous, binary and ordinal data. In the continuous data case, where it is possible to marginalise over…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-28 Konstantinos Vamvourellis , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos , Irini Moustaki

This article addresses the problem of derivative-free (single- or multi-objective) optimization subject to multiple inequality constraints. Both the objective and constraint functions are assumed to be smooth, non-linear and expensive to…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-28 Paul Feliot , Julien Bect , Emmanuel Vazquez

Real-world optimisation problems typically have objective functions which cannot be expressed analytically. These optimisation problems are evaluated through expensive physical experiments or simulations. Cheap approximations of the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Mohamed Z. Variawa , Terence L. Van Zyl , Matthew Woolway

The exploration of novel architectures requires physics-based simulation due to a lack of prior experience to start from, which introduces two specific challenges for optimization algorithms: evaluations become more expensive (in time) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-14 Jasper Bussemaker , Paul Saves , Nathalie Bartoli , Thierry Lefebvre , Björn Nagel

Multidisciplinary design optimization methods aim at adapting numerical optimization techniques to the design of engineering systems involving multiple disciplines. In this context, a large number of mixed continuous, integer and…

Majorization-minimization (MM) is a standard iterative optimization technique which consists in minimizing a sequence of convex surrogate functionals. MM approaches have been particularly successful to tackle inverse problems and…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-01 Yousra Bekhti , Felix Lucka , Joseph Salmon , Alexandre Gramfort

In the realm of statistical learning, the increasing volume of accessible data and increasing model complexity necessitate robust methodologies. This paper explores two branches of robust Bayesian methods in response to this trend. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-02 Masahiro Tanaka

Global optimization of black-box functions is challenging in high dimensions. We introduce a conceptual adaptive random search framework, Branching Adaptive Surrogate Search Optimization (BASSO), that combines partitioning and surrogate…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-28 Pariyakorn Maneekul , Zelda B. Zabinsky , Giulia Pedrielli