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Many epidemiological questions concern potential interventions to alter the pathways presumed to mediate an association. For example, we consider a study that investigates the benefit of interventions in young adulthood for ameliorating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-14 Margarita Moreno-Betancur , Paul Moran , Denise Becker , George C Patton , John B Carlin

Causal mediation analysis seeks to determine whether an independent variable affects a response variable directly or whether it does so indirectly, by way of a mediator. The existing statistical tests to determine the existence of an…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 John Kidd , Dan-Yu Lin

We investigate the estimation of the causal effect of a treatment variable on an outcome in the presence of a latent confounder. We first show that the causal effect is identifiable under certain conditions when data is available from…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Yaroslav Kivva , Sina Akbari , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

Causal mediation analysis decomposes the total effect of a treatment on an outcome into the indirect effect, operating through the mediator, and the direct effect, operating through other pathways. One can estimate only the pure indirect…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-16 Vindyani Herath , Ronald J. Bosch , Judith J. Lok

In the statistical literature, a number of methods have been proposed to ensure valid inference about marginal effects of variables on a longitudinal outcome in settings with irregular monitoring times. However, the potential biases due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Janie Coulombe , Erica E M Moodie , Robert W Platt

An individual has been subjected to some exposure and has developed some outcome. Using data on similar individuals, we wish to evaluate, for this case, the probability that the outcome was in fact caused by the exposure. Even with the best…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-16 Rossella Murtas , Alexander Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

Causal mediation analysis concerns the pathways through which a treatment affects an outcome. While most of the mediation literature focuses on settings with a single mediator, a flourishing line of research has examined settings involving…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-12 Xiang Zhou

We study high-dimensional mediation analysis in which exposures, mediators, and outcomes are all multivariate, and both exposures and mediators may be high-dimensional. We formalize this as a many (exposures)-to-many (mediators)-to-many…

Physical activity has long been shown to be associated with biological and physiological performance and risk of diseases. It is of great interest to assess whether the effect of an exposure or intervention on an outcome is mediated through…

Controlled Direct Effect (CDE) is one of the causal estimands used to evaluate both exposure and mediation effects on an outcome. When there are unmeasured confounders existing between the mediator and the outcome, the ordinary…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-30 Shunichiro Orihara , Shinpei Imori , Kosuke Morikawa , Atsushi Goto , Masataka Taguri

Suppose X and Y are binary exposure and outcome variables, and we have full knowledge of the distribution of Y, given application of X. From this we know the average causal effect of X on Y. We are now interested in assessing, for a case…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Philip Dawid , Macartan Humphreys , Monica Musio

Emission control technologies installed on power plants are a key feature of many air pollution regulations in the US. While such regulations are predicated on the presumed relationships between emissions, ambient air pollution, and human…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-19 Chanmin Kim , Michael Daniels , Joseph Hogan , Christine Choirat , Corwin Zigler

High-dimensional mediation analysis aims to identify mediating pathways and to estimate indirect effects linking an exposure to an outcome. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework to address key challenges in these analyses,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-13 Youngho Bae , Chanmin Kim , Fenglei Wang , Qi Sun , Kyu Ha Lee

A parametric expression for causal natural direct and indirect effects is derived for the setting of a binary outcome with a binary mediator. The proposed effect decomposition does not require the outcome to be rare and generalizes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Marco Doretti , Martina Raggi , Elena Stanghellini

Observational studies are a key resource for causal inference but are often affected by systematic biases. Prior work has focused mainly on detecting these biases, via sensitivity analyses and comparisons with randomized controlled trials,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Ilker Demirel , Zeshan Hussain , Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , David Sontag

We propose a novel methodology to quantify the effect of stochastic interventions on non-terminal time-to-events that lie on the pathway between an exposure and a terminal time-to-event outcome. Investigating these effects is particularly…

Observational studies of recurrent event rates are common in biomedical statistics. Broadly, the goal is to estimate differences in event rates under two treatments within a defined target population over a specified followup window.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-13 Arman Oganisian , Anthony Girard , Jon A. Steingrimsson , Patience Moyo

Existing causal methods for time-varying exposure and time-varying confounding focus on estimating the average causal effect of a time-varying binary treatment on an end-of-study outcome, offering limited tools for characterizing marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Yu Luo , Kuan Liu , Ramandeep Singh , Daniel J. Graham

This tutorial discusses methodology for causal inference using longitudinal modified treatment policies. This method facilitates the mathematical formalization, identification, and estimation of many novel parameters, and mathematically…

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk