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We consider stationary stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems by evaluating a given observable along the orbits of the system. We focus on the extremal behaviour of the process, which is related to the entrance in certain…

We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-07-28 Justus Contzen , Thorsten Dickhaus , Gerrit Lohmann

Describing the complex dependence structure of extreme phenomena is particularly challenging. To tackle this issue we develop a novel statistical algorithm that describes extremal dependence taking advantage of the inherent hierarchical…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-24 Sabrina Vettori , Raphaël Huser , Johan Segers , Marc G. Genton

Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-01 Won Chang , Jiali Wang , Julian Marohnic , Rao Kotamarthi , Elisabeth J. Moyer

In Bangladesh, a nation vulnerable to climate change, accurately quantifying the risk of extreme weather events is crucial for planning effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Downscaling coarse climate model projections to finer…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-22 Anamitra Saha , Sai Ravela

In order to reach the supply/demand balance, electricity providers need to predict the demand and production of electricity at different time scales. This implies the need of modeling weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, solar…

Applications · Statistics 2017-10-24 Augustin Touron

Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-02 Eleanor D'Arcy , Jonathan A. Tawn

Extreme value analysis for time series is often based on the block maxima method, in particular for environmental applications. In the classical univariate case, the latter is based on fitting an extreme-value distribution to the sample of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-20 Axel Bücher , Erik Haufs

Extreme values of real phenomena are events that occur with low frequency, but can have a large impact on real life. These are, in many practical problems, high-dimensional by nature (e.g. Tawn, 1990; Coles and Tawn, 1991). To study these…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-08-25 Boris Beranger , Simone A. Padoan

In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-05-29 Alka Yadav , Sourish Das , Anirban Chakraborti

Max-stable processes are the natural extension of the classical extreme-value distributions to the functional setting, and they are increasingly widely used to estimate probabilities of complex extreme events. In this paper we broaden them…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-05 Peiman Asadi , Anthony C. Davison , Sebastian Engelke

Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-23 Paul Sharkey , Jonathan A. Tawn , Simon J. Brown

Multivariate extreme value models are used to estimate joint risk in a number of applications, with a particular focus on environmental fields ranging from climatology and hydrology to oceanography and seismic hazards. The semi-parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-08 Ross Towe , Jonathan Tawn , Rob Lamb , Chris Sherlock

This paper discusses several modern approaches to regression analysis involving time series data where some of the predictor variables are also indexed by time. We discuss classical statistical approaches as well as methods that have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-02 Stephanie Clark , Rob J Hyndman , Dan Pagendam , Louise M Ryan

Most climate trend studies analyze long-term trends as a proxy for climate dynamics. However, when examining seasonal data, it is unrealistic to assume that long-term trends remain consistent across all seasons. Instead, each season likely…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-04 Jaechoul Lee , Mintaek Lee , Thea Sukianto

Understanding multivariate extreme events play a crucial role in managing the risks of complex systems since extremes are governed by their own mechanisms. Conditional on a given variable exceeding a high threshold (e.g.\ traffic…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-28 Valentin Courgeau , Almut E. D. Veraart

Multivariate extreme value distributions are a common choice for modelling multivariate extremes. In high dimensions, however, the construction of flexible and parsimonious models is challenging. We propose to combine bivariate max-stable…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-25 Shuang Hu , Zuoxiang Peng , Johan Segers

Rainfall prediction is one of the challenging and uncertain tasks which has a significant impact on human society. Timely and accurate predictions can help to proactively reduce human and financial loss. This study presents a set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-31 Nikhil Oswal

In extreme values theory, for a sufficiently large block size, the maxima distribution is approximated by the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions, which has…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-28 Cira E. G. Otiniano , Bianca Sousa , Roberto Vila , Marcelo Bourguignon

Modelling the extremal dependence structure of spatial data is considerably easier if that structure is stationary. However, for data observed over large or complicated domains, non-stationarity will often prevail. Current methods for…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-04 Jordan Richards , Jennifer L. Wadsworth