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A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Katherine Tian , Eric Mitchell , Allan Zhou , Archit Sharma , Rafael Rafailov , Huaxiu Yao , Chelsea Finn , Christopher D. Manning

Despite showing increasingly human-like abilities, large language models (LLMs) often struggle with factual inaccuracies, i.e. "hallucinations", even when they hold relevant knowledge. To address these hallucinations, current approaches…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Xiaoying Zhang , Baolin Peng , Ye Tian , Jingyan Zhou , Lifeng Jin , Linfeng Song , Haitao Mi , Helen Meng

Self-Consistency, a widely-used decoding strategy, significantly boosts the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, it depends on the plurality voting rule, which focuses on the most frequent answer while…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Siyuan Huang , Zhiyuan Ma , Jintao Du , Changhua Meng , Weiqiang Wang , Zhouhan Lin

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) in the realm of mathematical reasoning necessitates comprehensive evaluations to gauge progress and inspire future directions. Existing assessments predominantly focus on problem-solving…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Xiaoyuan Li , Wenjie Wang , Moxin Li , Junrong Guo , Yang Zhang , Fuli Feng

Accurate confidence calibration in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for safe use in high-stakes domains, where clear verbalized confidence enhances user trust. Traditional methods that mimic reference confidence expressions often…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Qing Zong , Jiayu Liu , Tianshi Zheng , Chunyang Li , Baixuan Xu , Haochen Shi , Weiqi Wang , Zhaowei Wang , Chunkit Chan , Yangqiu Song

Large language models (LLMs) often present answers with high apparent confidence despite lacking an explicit mechanism for reasoning about certainty or truth. While existing benchmarks primarily evaluate single-turn accuracy, truthfulness…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Mohammadreza Saadat , Steve Nemzer

Recent works have shown that language models (LM) capture different types of knowledge regarding facts or common sense. However, because no model is perfect, they still fail to provide appropriate answers in many cases. In this paper, we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-05-21 Zhengbao Jiang , Jun Araki , Haibo Ding , Graham Neubig

Large Language Models deployed as question answering tools require robust calibration to avoid overconfidence. We systematically evaluate how reasoning capabilities and budget affect confidence assessment accuracy, using the ClimateX…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-22 Romain Lacombe , Kerrie Wu , Eddie Dilworth

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) on language modeling and emergent capabilities make them a promising reference-free evaluator of natural language generation quality, and a competent alternative to human evaluation.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Yuxuan Liu , Tianchi Yang , Shaohan Huang , Zihan Zhang , Haizhen Huang , Furu Wei , Weiwei Deng , Feng Sun , Qi Zhang

Multiple Choice Question (MCQ) tests are among the most used methods for evaluating large language models (LLMs). Besides checking the correctness of the selected answer, evaluations often consider the model's confidence through the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Tairan Fu , Javier Conde , Gonzalo Martínez , María Grandury , Pedro Reviriego

While large language models (LLMs) improve performance by explicit reasoning, their responses are often overconfident, even though they include linguistic expressions demonstrating uncertainty. In this work, we identify what linguistic…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Shintaro Ozaki , Wataru Hashimoto , Hidetaka Kamigaito , Katsuhiko Hayashi , Taro Watanabe

Mathematical reasoning is an important research direction in the field of artificial intelligence. This article proposes a novel multi tool application framework for mathematical reasoning, aiming to achieve more comprehensive and accurate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-23 Zhihua Duan , Jialin Wang

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of modern machine-learning models. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Thomas Decker , Volker Tresp , Florian Buettner

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated inherent calibration capabilities, where predicted probabilities align well with correctness, despite prior findings that deep neural networks are often overconfident. Recent studies have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Abhinav Joshi , Areeb Ahmad , Ashutosh Modi

Calibration measures whether a model's predicted confidence aligns with its empirical accuracy, and is central to the reliable deployment of large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. While much recent…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Zhanliang Wang , Jiancong Xiao , Ruochen Jin , Shu Yang , Bojian Hou , Li Shen

Recent advancements in large language models have led to significant improvements across various tasks, including mathematical reasoning, which is used to assess models' intelligence in logical reasoning and problem-solving. Models are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Erez Yosef , Oron Anschel , Shunit Haviv Hakimi , Asaf Gendler , Adam Botach , Nimrod Berman , Igor Kviatkovsky

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly rely on long-form, multi-step reasoning to solve complex tasks such as mathematical problem solving and scientific question answering. Despite strong performance, existing confidence estimation…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Zhenjiang Mao , Anirudhh Venkat , Artem Bisliouk , Akshat Kothiyal , Sindhura Kumbakonam Subramanian , Saithej Singhu , Ivan Ruchkin

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly large language models (LLMs), become increasingly integrated into decision-making processes, the ability to trust their outputs is crucial. To earn human trust, LLMs must be well…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Mark Steyvers , Heliodoro Tejeda , Aakriti Kumar , Catarina Belem , Sheer Karny , Xinyue Hu , Lukas Mayer , Padhraic Smyth

The tool-use ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) has a profound impact on a wide range of industrial applications. However, LLMs' self-control and calibration capability in appropriately using tools remains understudied. The problem is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Yuanhao Shen , Xiaodan Zhu , Lei Chen

Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) achieve strong multimodal reasoning but frequently exhibit hallucinations and incorrect responses with high certainty, which hinders their usage in high-stakes domains. Existing verbalized confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Wenyi Xiao , Xinchi Xu , Leilei Gan