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Bayesian optimization based on the Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) offers a theoretical guarantee for optimizing black-box functions. In practice, however, black-box functions often involve input uncertainty. To handle such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-24 Yu Inatsu

Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) method is arguably the most celebrated one used in online decision making with partial information feedback. Existing techniques for constructing confidence bounds are typically built upon various concentration…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Botao Hao , Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Zheng Wen , Guang Cheng

An automatic machine learning (AutoML) task is to select the best algorithm and its hyper-parameters simultaneously. Previously, the hyper-parameters of all algorithms are joint as a single search space, which is not only huge but also…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-03 Yi-Qi Hu , Yang Yu , Jun-Da Liao

Approximate dynamic programming is a popular method for solving large Markov decision processes. This paper describes a new class of approximate dynamic programming (ADP) methods- distributionally robust ADP-that address the curse of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-05-22 Marek Petrik

To model combinatorial decision problems involving uncertainty and probability, we introduce stochastic constraint programming. Stochastic constraint programs contain both decision variables (which we can set) and stochastic variables…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2009-03-09 Toby Walsh

Long-term reservoir management often uses bounds on the reservoir level, between which the operator can work. However, these bounds are not always kept up-to-date with the latest knowledge about the reservoir drainage area, and thus become…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-01-29 Thibaut Cuvelier , Pierre Archambeau , Benjamin Dewals , Quentin Louveaux

We propose a robust optimization approach for constructing confidence bands for stochastic processes using a finite number of simulated sample paths. Our approach can be used to quantify uncertainty in realizations of stochastic processes…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Timothy Chan , Jangwon Park , Vahid Sarhangian

Debiased recommendation with a randomized dataset has shown very promising results in mitigating the system-induced biases. However, it still lacks more theoretical insights or an ideal optimization objective function compared with the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-03-22 Dugang Liu , Pengxiang Cheng , Zinan Lin , Xiaolian Zhang , Zhenhua Dong , Rui Zhang , Xiuqiang He , Weike Pan , Zhong Ming

We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-03 John Duchi , Peter Glynn , Hongseok Namkoong

Adaptively collected data has become ubiquitous within modern practice. However, even seemingly benign adaptive sampling schemes can introduce severe biases, rendering traditional statistical inference tools inapplicable. This can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Wei Fan , Kevin Tan , Yuting Wei

We study the stochastic Budgeted Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problem, where a player chooses from $K$ arms with unknown expected rewards and costs. The goal is to maximize the total reward under a budget constraint. A player thus seeks to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-16 Marco Heyden , Vadim Arzamasov , Edouard Fouché , Klemens Böhm

In performative stochastic optimization, decisions can influence the distribution of random parameters, rendering the data-generating process itself decision-dependent. In practice, decision-makers rarely have access to the true…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-27 Zhuangzhuang Jia , Yijie Wang , Roy Dong , Grani A. Hanasusanto

Data-driven decision-making under uncertainty typically presumes the collection of historical data from an unknown target probability distribution. However, one may have no access to any data from the target distribution prior to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-23 Xianyu Li , Huan Xu , Xiaolin Huang , Chao Shang

The identification of causal effects in observational studies typically relies on two standard assumptions: unconfoundedness and overlap. However, both assumptions are often questionable in practice: unconfoundedness is inherently…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Han Cui , Xinran Li

Selecting the best alternative from a finite set represents a broad class of pure exploration problems. Traditional approaches to pure exploration have predominantly relied on Gaussian or sub-Gaussian assumptions on the performance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Zaile Li , Weiwei Fan , L. Jeff Hong

We study a novel machine learning (ML) problem setting of sequentially allocating small subsets of training data amongst a large set of classifiers. The goal is to select a classifier that will give near-optimal accuracy when trained on all…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-01-05 Ashish Sabharwal , Horst Samulowitz , Gerald Tesauro

The growing uncertainty from renewable power and electricity demand brings significant challenges to unit commitment (UC). While various advanced forecasting and optimization methods have been developed to predict better and address this…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Rui Xie , Yue Chen , Pierre Pinson

The Partial Area Under the ROC Curve (PAUC), typically including One-way Partial AUC (OPAUC) and Two-way Partial AUC (TPAUC), measures the average performance of a binary classifier within a specific false positive rate and/or true positive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Huiyang Shao , Qianqian Xu , Zhiyong Yang , Shilong Bao , Qingming Huang

In critical decision support systems based on medical imaging, the reliability of AI-assisted decision-making is as relevant as predictive accuracy. Although deep learning models have demonstrated significant accuracy, they frequently…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Hua Xu , Julián D. Arias-Londoño , Juan I. Godino-Llorente

The last decade witnessed an explosion in the availability of data for operations research applications. Motivated by this growing availability, we propose a novel schema for utilizing data to design uncertainty sets for robust optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-11-25 Dimitris Bertsimas , Vishal Gupta , Nathan Kallus