Related papers: Complex economics of simple periodic systems
The objective of this work is the investigation of complexity, asymmetry, stochasticity and non-linearity of the financial and economic systems by using the tools of statistical mechanics and information theory. More precisely, this thesis…
We investigate quantitatively the so-called leverage effect, which corresponds to a negative correlation between past returns and future volatility. For individual stocks, this correlation is moderate and decays exponentially over 50 days,…
Financial markets typically exhibit dynamically complex properties as they undergo continuous interactions with economic and environmental factors. The Efficient Market Hypothesis indicates a rich difference in the structural complexity of…
We derive formulas for the performance of capital assets in continuous time from an efficient market hypothesis, with no stochastic assumptions and no assumptions about the beliefs or preferences of investors. Our efficient market…
I sketch a program for a microeconomic theory of the main component of the business cycle as a recurring disequilibrium, driven by incompleteness of the financial market and by information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. This…
Constant product markets with concentrated liquidity (CL) are the most popular type of automated market makers. In this paper, we characterise the continuous-time wealth dynamics of strategic LPs who dynamically adjust their range of…
In the pursuit of ever increasing efficiency and growth, our economies have evolved to remarkable degrees of complexity, with nested production processes feeding each other in order to create products of greater sophistication from less…
A representative investor generates realistic and complex security price paths by following this trading strategy: if, a few ticks ago, the market asset had two consecutive upticks or two consecutive downticks, then sell, and otherwise buy.…
As operators acting on the undetermined final settlement of a derivative security, expectation is linear but price is non-linear. When the market of underlying securities is incomplete, non-linearity emerges from the bid-offer around the…
Betting markets are gaining in popularity. Mean beliefs generally differ from prices in prediction markets. Logarithmic utility is employed to study the risk and return adjustments to prices. Some consequences are described. A modified…
We consider a multivariate financial market with transaction costs and study the problem of finding the minimal initial capital needed to hedge, without risk, European-type contingent claims. The model is similar to the one considered in…
An asset pricing model using long-run capital share growth risk has recently been found to successfully explain U.S. stock returns. Our paper adopts a recursive preference utility framework to derive an heterogeneous asset pricing model…
Financial economic models often assume that investors know (or agree on) the fundamental value of the shares of the firm, easing the passage from the individual to the collective dimension of the financial system generated by the Share…
We analyze the probability distribution for entropy production rates of trajectories evolving on a class of out-of-equilibrium kinetic networks. These networks can serve as simple models for driven dynamical systems, which are of particular…
The distribution of price returns for a class of uncorrelated diffusive dynamics is considered. The basic assumptions are (1) that there is a "consensus" value associated with a stock, and (2) that the rate of diffusion depends on the…
In the online portfolio optimization framework, existing learning algorithms generate strategies that yield significantly poorer cumulative wealth compared to the best constant rebalancing portfolio in hindsight, despite being consistent in…
A two-state master equation based decision making model has been shown to generate phase transitions, to be topologically complex and to manifest temporal complexity through an inverse power-law probability distribution function in the…
When trading incurs proportional costs, leverage can scale an asset's return only up to a maximum multiple, which is sensitive to its volatility and liquidity. In a model with one safe and one risky asset, with constant investment…
The money market and the capital market of the Indian financial markets have a symbiotic relationship in the development of the Indian economy. The nature and the characteristics of the markets differ to a large extent as the money market…
Scale independence is a ubiquitous feature of complex systems which implies a highly skewed distribution of resources with no characteristic scale. Research has long focused on why systems as varied as protein networks, evolution and stock…