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We consider the problem of learning a conditional Gaussian graphical model in the presence of latent variables. Building on recent advances in this field, we suggest a method that decomposes the parameters of a conditional Markov random…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-07 Benjamin Frot , Luke Jostins , Gil McVean

We introduce Bayesian spatial change of support methodology for count-valued survey data with known survey variances. Our proposed methodology is motivated by the American Community Survey (ACS), an ongoing survey administered by the U.S.…

Applications · Statistics 2014-10-29 Jonathan R. Bradley , Christopher K. Wikle , Scott H. Holan

Nonstationary non-Gaussian spatial data are common in many disciplines, including climate science, ecology, epidemiology, and social sciences. Examples include count data on disease incidence and binary satellite data on cloud mask…

Computation · Statistics 2020-11-30 Benjamin Seiyon Lee , Jaewoo Park

Adapting large-scale foundation models to new domains with limited supervision remains a fundamental challenge due to latent distribution mismatch, unstable optimization dynamics, and miscalibrated uncertainty propagation. This paper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Aueaphum Aueawatthanaphisut , Kuepon Auewattanapisut

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-04 Roger Frigola , Yutian Chen , Carl E. Rasmussen

Recent developments in engineering techniques for spatial data collection such as geographic information systems have resulted in an increasing need for methods to analyze large spatial data sets. These sorts of data sets can be found in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-14 Toshihiro Hirano

The Gaussian copula is a powerful tool that has been widely used to model spatial and/or temporal correlated data with arbitrary marginal distributions. However, this kind of model can potentially be too restrictive since it expresses a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-30 Moreno Bevilacqua , Eloy Alvarado , Christian Caamaño-Carrillo

Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…

Applications · Statistics 2014-11-19 Yang Liu , Philip Kokic

Generative modeling of spatio-temporal fields is crucial for a variety of applications, including stochastic weather generators and climate-model surrogates. However, many such fields exhibit complex dependence structures that vary across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Carrie J. Lei-Cramer , Jian Cao , Matthias Katzfuss

In analyses of spatially-referenced data, researchers often have one of two goals: to quantify relationships between a response variable and covariates while accounting for residual spatial dependence or to predict the value of a response…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-11 Candace Berrett , Catherine A. Calder

This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-01 Danil Kuzin , Olga Isupova , Lyudmila Mihaylova

Uncertainty is an inherent characteristic of biological and geospatial data which is almost made by measurement error in the observed values of the quantity of interest. Ignoring measurement error can lead to biased estimates and inflated…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-16 Vahid Tadayon

Coming up with Bayesian models for spatial data is easy, but performing inference with them can be challenging. Writing fast inference code for a complex spatial model with realistically-sized datasets from scratch is time-consuming, and if…

Spatial confounding is a common issue in spatial regression models, occurring when spatially varying covariates correlate with the spatial effect included in the model. This dependence, particularly at high spatial frequencies, can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Isa Marques , Paul F. V. Wiemann

Nonstationary Gaussian processes (GPs) are essential for modeling complex, locally heterogeneous spatial data. A common modeling approach is the spatial deformation method that warps the domain to recover isotropy. However, this static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Minghao Gu , Weizhi Lin , Qiang Huang

Nonstationary and non-Gaussian spatial data are common in various fields, including ecology (e.g., counts of animal species), epidemiology (e.g., disease incidence counts in susceptible regions), and environmental science (e.g.,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-01 Remy MacDonald , Benjamin Seiyon Lee

Precipitation is a complex physical process that varies in space and time. Predictions and interpolations at unobserved times and/or locations help to solve important problems in many areas. In this paper, we present a hierarchical Bayesian…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-17 Fabio Sigrist , Hans R. Künsch , Werner A. Stahel

The solutions of Hamiltonian equations are known to describe the underlying phase space of a mechanical system. In this article, we propose a novel spatio-temporal model using a strategic modification of the Hamiltonian equations,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-17 Satyaki Mazumder , Sayantan Banerjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Longitudinal data are important in numerous fields, such as healthcare, sociology and seismology, but real-world datasets present notable challenges for practitioners because they can be high-dimensional, contain structured missingness…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Maksim Sinelnikov , Manuel Haussmann , Harri Lähdesmäki

The conditional extremes framework allows for event-based stochastic modeling of dependent extremes, and has recently been extended to spatial and spatio-temporal settings. After standardizing the marginal distributions and applying an…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Emma S. Simpson , Thomas Opitz , Jennifer L. Wadsworth