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We consider a decision aggregation problem with two experts who each make a binary recommendation after observing a private signal about an unknown binary world state. An agent, who does not know the joint information structure between…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Yuqi Pan , Zhaohua Chen , Yuqing Kong

Robust forecast aggregation combines the predictions of multiple information sources to perform well in the worst case across all possible information structures. Previous work largely focuses on settings with a known binary state space,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Zhi Chen , Cheng Peng , Wei Tang

Robust aggregation integrates predictions from multiple experts without knowledge of the experts' information structures. Prior work assumes experts are Bayesian, providing predictions as perfect posteriors based on their signals. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Yuqing Kong , Shu Wang , Ying Wang

We investigate the problem of cumulative regret minimization for individual sequence prediction with respect to the best expert in a finite family of size K under limited access to information. We assume that in each round, the learner can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-06 El Mehdi Saad , G. Blanchard

We study information aggregation with a decision maker aggregating binary recommendations from symmetric agents. Each agent's recommendation depends on her private information about a hidden state. While the decision maker knows the prior…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-11-17 Itai Arieli , Yakov Babichenko , Inbal Talgam-Cohen , Konstantin Zabarnyi

This paper considers two fundamental sequential decision-making problems: the problem of prediction with expert advice and the multi-armed bandit problem. We focus on stochastic regimes in which an adversary may corrupt losses, and we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-24 Shinji Ito

We address online linear optimization problems when the possible actions of the decision maker are represented by binary vectors. The regret of the decision maker is the difference between her realized loss and the best loss she would have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-04-02 Jean-Yves Audibert , Sébastien Bubeck , Gábor Lugosi

Bayesian experts who are exposed to different evidence often make contradictory probabilistic forecasts. An aggregator, ignorant of the underlying model, uses this to calculate her own forecast. We use the notions of scoring rules and…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2018-02-13 Itai Areili , Yakov Babichenko , Rann Smorodinsky

We introduce algorithms for online, full-information prediction that are competitive with contextual tree experts of unknown complexity, in both probabilistic and adversarial settings. We show that by incorporating a probabilistic framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-23 Vidya Muthukumar , Mitas Ray , Anant Sahai , Peter L. Bartlett

We design differentially private algorithms for the problem of prediction with expert advice under dynamic regret, also known as tracking the best expert. Our work addresses three natural types of adversaries, stochastic with shifting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-14 Aadirupa Saha , Vinod Raman , Hilal Asi

We study the problem of robust forecast aggregation: combining expert forecasts with provable accuracy guarantees compared to the best possible aggregation of the underlying information. Prior work shows strong impossibility results, e.g.…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Rafael Frongillo , Mary Monroe , Eric Neyman , Bo Waggoner

Optimization problems routinely depend on uncertain parameters that must be predicted before a decision is made. Classical robust and regret formulations are designed to handle erroneous predictions and can provide statistical error bounds…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Jannis Kurtz , Bart P. G. van Parys

We study a variant of decision-theoretic online learning in which the set of experts that are available to Learner can shrink over time. This is a restricted version of the well-studied sleeping experts problem, itself a generalization of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-31 Hamid Shayestehmanesh , Sajjad Azami , Nishant A. Mehta

Adversarially robust learning aims to design algorithms that are robust to small adversarial perturbations on input variables. Beyond the existing studies on the predictive performance to adversarial samples, our goal is to understand…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-21 Yue Xing , Ruizhi Zhang , Guang Cheng

We study the sequential general online regression, known also as the sequential probability assignments, under logarithmic loss when compared against a broad class of experts. We focus on obtaining tight, often matching, lower and upper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-02 Changlong Wu , Mohsen Heidari , Ananth Grama , Wojciech Szpankowski

We consider the online distributed non-stochastic experts problem, where the distributed system consists of one coordinator node that is connected to $k$ sites, and the sites are required to communicate with each other via the coordinator.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-11-15 Varun Kanade , Zhenming Liu , Bozidar Radunovic

We consider a variation on the problem of prediction with expert advice, where new forecasters that were unknown until then may appear at each round. As often in prediction with expert advice, designing an algorithm that achieves…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-01 Jaouad Mourtada , Odalric-Ambrym Maillard

We consider online convex optimization when a number k of data points are outliers that may be corrupted. We model this by introducing the notion of robust regret, which measures the regret only on rounds that are not outliers. The aim for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Tim van Erven , Sarah Sachs , Wouter M. Koolen , Wojciech Kotłowski

We study how we can adapt a predictor to a non-stationary environment with advises from multiple experts. We study the problem under complete feedback when the best expert changes over time from a decision theoretic point of view. Proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-08 Vishnu Raj , Sheetal Kalyani

A rich line of recent work has studied distributionally robust learning approaches that seek to learn a hypothesis that performs well, in the worst-case, on many different distributions over a population. We argue that although the most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Jabari Hastings , Christopher Jung , Charlotte Peale , Vasilis Syrgkanis
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