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It is generally accepted that many time series of practical interest exhibit strong dependence, i.e., long memory. For such series, the sample autocorrelations decay slowly and log-log periodogram plots indicate a straight-line…
Long memory in the sense of slowly decaying autocorrelations is a stylized fact in many time series from economics and finance. The fractionally integrated process is the workhorse model for the analysis of these time series. Nevertheless,…
Many scientific areas, from computer science to the environmental sciences and finance, give rise to multivariate time series which exhibit long memory, or loosely put, a slow decay in their autocorrelation structure. Efficient modelling…
It is well-known that the aggregated time series might have very different properties from those of the individual series, in particular, long memory. At the present time, aggregation has become one of the main tools for modelling of long…
This is a survey of some recent results on the rational circulant covariance extension problem: Given a partial sequence $(c_0,c_1,\dots,c_n)$ of covariance lags $c_k=\mathbb{E}\{y(t+k)\overline{y(t)}\}$ emanating from a stationary periodic…
The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is a classical, and arguably one of the most studied approaches to model time series data. It has compelling theoretical properties and is widely used among practitioners. More recent deep…
This paper explores seasonal and long-memory time series properties by using the seasonal fractional ARIMA model when the seasonal data has one and two seasonal periods and short-memory counterparts. The stationarity and invertibility…
In this work, we will investigate a Bayesian approach to estimating the parameters of long memory models. Long memory, characterized by the phenomenon of hyperbolic autocorrelation decay in time series, has garnered significant attention.…
This paper proposes a simple yet effective convolutional module for long-term time series forecasting. The proposed block, inspired by the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, consists of two convolutional components:…
A stochastic model, the product of a circulant matrix and a random normal vector, is shown to produce an evolutive long memory time series with a power law spectral density. The distribution of the time series, a beta location scale family…
In this work we propose a new class of long-memory models with time-varying fractional parameter. In particular, the dynamics of the long-memory coefficient, $d$, is specified through a stochastic recurrence equation driven by the score of…
Spectral singularities at non-zero frequencies play an important role in investigating cyclic or seasonal time series. The publication [2] introduced the generalized filtered method-of-moments approach to simultaneously estimate singularity…
Moving from univariate to bivariate jointly dependent long-memory time series introduces a phase parameter $(\gamma)$, at the frequency of principal interest, zero; for short-memory series $\gamma=0$ automatically. The latter case has also…
This paper reviews recent developments of robust estimation in linear time series models, with short and long memory correlation structures, in the presence of additive outliers. Based on the manuscripts Fajardo et al. (2009) and…
We consider the general problem of modeling temporal data with long-range dependencies, wherein new observations are fully or partially predictable based on temporally-distant, past observations. A sufficiently powerful temporal model…
This paper studies the error metric selection for long-term memory learning in sequence modelling. We examine the bias towards short-term memory in commonly used errors, including mean absolute/squared error. Our findings show that all…
In this paper, we propose a continual learning (CL) technique that is beneficial to sequential task learners by improving their retained accuracy and reducing catastrophic forgetting. The principal target of our approach is the automatic…
In the general setting of long-memory multivariate time series, the long-memory characteristics are defined by two components. The long-memory parameters describe the autocorrelation of each time series. And the long-run covariance measures…
We consider a measure of dependence for symmetric $\alpha$-stable random vectors, which was introduced by the author in 1976. We demonstrate that this measure of dependence can be extended for much more broad class of random vectors (up to…
We present generalized additive latent and mixed models (GALAMMs) for analysis of clustered data with responses and latent variables depending smoothly on observed variables. A scalable maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is proposed,…